We are being asked regularly to comment on how we believe the Monaco property market will react post crisis and whilst we are not crystal-ball gazers and this is a crisis like no other we have witnessed, we are trying to respond to that question as best we can.

Savills is renowned for its world class research and we have produced some good stuff throughout the Covid 19 crisis: our webinar on the UK market was brilliant and can be found here Savills Covid-19 Webinar if you are interested. Talk of the V shaped dip was prevalent, with a fairly rapid recovery being made towards the end of this year and a positive 2021 for the UK in general.

It was greatly encouraging to hear, for Savills UK, that leads and buyer registrations were back at the same levels as pre lockdown. We have experienced pretty much the same here at Savills Monaco: a real slump around 17 March and, since then, a sustained upturn, so we are back at pre lockdown levels. And in terms of quality, we feel our leads have been better post lockdown with real interest from qualified potential buyers or renters.

So how will the Monaco market react post lockdown, do we think? Our thoughts in brief:

1. It is early days as yet in Monaco but the property market has not come to a standstill here during lockdown. Deals have been done albeit fewer for sure: no data is available as yet but the notarial system has adapted to long distance completions which can only be positive for the future;

2. Sellers here have, in the past, been very optimistic about value given the buoyant market in the last few years and we think that the crisis will inject some reality into a somewhat overheated market;

3. There will certainly be a decrease in the number of transactions this year: we will have had two months of no viewings and no “outsiders “being able to travel here easily and that will translate into fewer deals. Plus, whilst the lockdown here eases as of 3 May, we do not yet know what that means- hotels will remain closed for some time, for example, meaning that buyers who would like to visit, will not be able to very easily, and flights also are considerably  down in number. That being said, we believe that August (traditionally a quiet month here) could well be busy as life returns to “normal”;

4. Distressed sales:  we believe we are unlikely to see many of those here. The market is small anyway and sellers are not generally in a position here to need to sell. There may be some but they will be relatively few, in our opinion: but if sellers wish to sell, they will need to review their often very optimistic asking prices and go through something of a reality check. Buyers will be keener than ever to do their homework and ensure they are paying a fair price for the right asset;

5. We think that larger monaco apartments are going to do even better (sale and rentals) than they were already doing, as people take into account where they may be forced to spend time in any future lockdown;

6. Rentals: the monaco property rentals market seems so far to have remained quite stable. Private landlords are being asked to allow discounts / time to pay but we do property management here and have not seen defaults. 

Most markedly, during lockdown, Monaco seems to have coped very well in terms of controlling the crisis: there have been few cases here; the hospital is not stretched; the police have been reasonable about dealing with people going out for sport etc and we have not been obliged to carry a myriad of documents justifying what we are doing out (unlike neighbouring countries). Of course, we are dealing with a small country and it is easier to “control” the population, but nevertheless, people here have really appreciated being in what has seemed to be a very safe haven in all senses of the term.

So, we are still open for business and very shortly will be in business again from the usual place!