In an era of political uncertainty and technological innovation, it is easy to become reactive and risk averse. But it’s not just political infighting and regulatory change that is causing uncertainty. It’s also the huge upheaval in society enabled by technological innovation. There is no certainty about how well-established markets will react, so picking winners for 2019 won’t be simple. But the tips in this Spotlight are based on a deep understanding of the fundamentals of our markets’ economics. Not the reactive trends, but on the long-term drivers of success.

During this process, we identified three common themes.

1. Societal need

The most dominant trend for investment success in 2019 is around meeting the basics of human needs. Across the spectrum, social media has created a new way for the people to hold those in power to account. We see enhanced social responsibility across multiple property investments as a result. Office space has to offer a people-first environment. For rural places, welcoming visitors remains a good way to diversify income streams, but the experience is more important than the view. For both commercial and rural trading investments, focusing on meeting customer expectations in generating secure trading or rental income is essential. Getting the service element right in retail should be a central focus of commercial property investors in 2019. Online competition is a threat, but one need only ask, “What can Amazon not do?” to start generating interesting and investable concepts for trading enterprises.

In the residential sector, the current Housing Minister’s Twitter mantra of #MoreBetterFaster only hints at a wider policy shift towards more diverse housing delivery that is more closely linked to need. Much of that is being channelled through a planning system under ongoing reform. This comes at a time when major house builders have been put on notice that Help to Buy only has a limited life, the pioneers of Build to Rent have developed the models that will underpin the future expansion of this sector, and providers of affordable housing have been given more support to deliver on their development aspirations.

2. Environmental gains

Driven by regulatory changes in rural land use, we predict that ‘net environmental gain’ and ‘offsetting’ will be the buzzwords in land use for 2019. The 25 Year Environment Plan for the UK should be brought into legislative effect during 2019 via an Environment Bill. It will set out the environmental principles and governance that will guide all land use in the UK. Climate regulation and the ongoing attempt to meet the COP21 Paris commitments will act as drivers in policy making and corporate social responsibility. Demand from corporate landlords and tenants for renewable energy and on-site energy points to more interaction between commercial and rural assets. This is expected to lead to the development of more mixed-use portfolios.

The rising influence of corporate investors in Build to Rent also reflects this. Corporates are now creating diversified products that better integrate green space and energy accountability. The economies of scale in these developments pave the way for enhanced well-being, stronger community and better design. Critically, from a financial perspective this should create a marketing advantage.

3. Planning long-term

The third strand brings the others together: financial resilience, which we predict will be based on lower capital appreciation and a renewed focus on income generation than in previous years. Despite stellar rises over the past 10 years, the uncertainties over the medium term mean capital growth cannot be taken for granted. Longer term, we remain confident that the underlying market fundamentals will remain strong, but a clear plan for riding out short- to mid-term instability is essential. The Treasury remains confident of its key performance indicators around employment and growth in any Brexit scenario. But as we reach a stage of trade uncertainty post-Brexit, keeping an eye on broader demographic trends in regional employment is more important than ever. A more liberal global trade agenda remains a key driver for post-Brexit Britain. Spotting the winners and losers that may arise from the shift away from the EU and towards global trade will be key.

Of course, social, environmental and financial performance are the central pillars of any sustainability plan, but they are also the central tenets of business resilience. Measuring and managing risks across these categories, with a renewed focus on the human and environmental aspects, has never been more important in spotting synergies and new opportunities, and thus for creating successful long-term investment plans.