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Spotlight: Prime UK Residential

Foreword

Lucian Cook summarises the UK’s diversely performing prime market with notable brevity. The factors driving its future, however, take a bit more time


Taxation. Interest rates. Political uncertainty. Probably the three factors having the biggest impact on the UK’s prime housing markets. The effect? That is more difficult to summarise in five words.

Speak to our agents about current market conditions and they would probably go no further than saying it is good in parts. Most likely they would refer to a lack of urgency.

This is reflected in our prime house price indices. Prices in London continue to decline, albeit gently. The weakness in that market has filtered into the commuter zone. Beyond that, prices have held up, though the rate of growth can hardly be described as electrifying. Let’s settle on it being price sensitive.

And yet, HMRC and the Registers of Scotland recorded 19,300 sales of £1 million-plus properties in 2017. That is 1,000 more than in 2016, 1,400 more than in 2014 and 4,400 more than in 2007. It equates to one £1 million-plus sale every 27 minutes.

These figures suggest the prime market is far from dormant, and when property is priced according to market conditions it will trade. So, we can probably say with some confidence that it is more of a buyers’ than a sellers’ market.

But, as our indices and the distribution of £1 million-plus transactions show, it isn’t uniform, with the markets of Scotland and the North of England gaining momentum at this point in the cycle. We look at five more specific locations bucking the trend later in this report.

So, there we have it, our summary of the impact in five words. Price sensitive. Buyers’ market. Generally.

Whether that is good or bad depends on whether you are a buyer or seller in this market. As for the future, well, that really depends on our three key drivers.

It is more than three years since the overhaul of stamp duty, so the market has had plenty of time to adapt to the new environment. Current transaction levels suggest high rates of stamp duty are unlikely to change, unless we have a wider review of property taxes. But as a prime property owner, you need to be careful what you wish for.

Interest rates are expected to rise, but only gradually, and we will likely remain in a relatively low interest-rate environment for the mid term at least.

History tells us that as political uncertainty fades, so we can expect a recovery; though perhaps not one as dramatic as we have seen in the past. The question is: when will that be? That is rapidly becoming the most difficult thing of all to predict.

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