Latest census information confirms growing evidence of falling birth rates. Is this being factored into the education contributions arising from new residential development?
There is an opportunity to review the approaches taken by planning and education authorities in light of emerging evidence, including from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This can then inform social infrastructure strategies and potentially redirect contributions to other types of social infrastructure, better serving local communities and maximising the benefits associated with building more housing.
The number of schools in England has remained relatively stable over the last 10 years as per the latest statistics from the Department for Education (DfE), with only state funded primary schools decreasing slightly. But what is happening with pupil numbers and what does the 2021 Census reveal about the future?
The number of children aged 0-4 has reduced since the previous census in 2011 with an annual reduction of 0.8 per cent. The same is applicable to the proportion of people in that age group in England and Wales, with a lower proportion of people in the 0-4 age group. This trend is also evident when looking at the number of births during the last 10 years as shown below. Since 2011 the number of births follows a decreasing trend with an average reduction rate of 1.5 per cent per annum.
The latest pupil projections to 2028 by ONS reflect the same trend with the overall number of state nursery and primary pupils forecast to reduce by 12 per cent and the equivalent number of secondary pupils to peak by 2025 and then start falling slightly.
What does this mean for development contributions and the future of school provision?
These national trends show that overall the spare capacity of primary schools is anticipated to increase over the next five to six years. However, this will vary by location, depending on area-specific factors (something which underlines the importance of assessing and understanding the picture at a very local level).
Local education authorities tend to rely on historic pupil yields to plan for the future education needs that will result from major residential development. This also informs potential planning obligations. Given the forecast above, are suitable adjustments being made?
Education planning authorities need to take into account not only historic yields but also pupil projections and birth trends during the planning process to make sure that future schools are sufficient and sustainable. This can then inform planning obligations in addition to using review mechanisms to allow flexibility for future changes. Likewise, developers need to be aware of such changes and request flexibility which ensures fair contributions and sustainable education provision.
Local education authorities vary in how much information they share so it can be helpful for developers to independently review and estimate need as a way of exploring assumptions.
Further discussion and negotiation could allow new developments to make alternative, more beneficial contributions for local communities where appropriate, optimising the benefits of new housing.
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