We opened one of our publications earlier this year by saying “2021 will be a complex year”. Little did we know just how true this prediction would prove to be.

Record low mortgage rates and the demand for more space supported house price growth, particularly for larger properties. A range of stamp duty holidays across the UK simply added more heat to the market. Early data from after the holidays’ end suggests the housing market has cooled back from a rolling boil to a gentle simmer.

Those rapid price rises across the country this year have eroded housing affordability. In the North and Midlands, where affordability is less constrained, we can expect price growth to outperform. But in regions such as London and the South East, where affordability was already stretched, this will limit the pace of price growth over the next five years. The prime markets will prove the exception to this rule, bouncing back as international travellers return to central London.

Guy Whittaker sets out our revised rental forecasts, predicting a resurgence in London as the lustre of city centre life returns. Emily Williams predicts housing delivery, weighing up greater government support for affordable housing against the withdrawal of Help to Buy. And Lawrence Bowles answers the fiendishly diffcult question of what happens to transaction numbers.

With a bit of luck, 2022 will be a less complex year than 2021. Regardless, our research will be here to help guide you through even the most challenging of market conditions.

6 key takeaways from our report

1. Mainstream UK house prices will rise 13.1% by 2026
2. Growth will be fastest in the North of England and slowest in London
3. Rents in cities will bounce back as we see urban life regain its lustre
4. Transactions will slow after next year as the Government withdraws support, but working from home will drive upsizer demand
5. Even with a £12 billion Affordable Homes Programme, we won’t get back to 2019 levels of housing delivery until 2026
6. Prime central London will outperform as international travel resumes