Research article

Have we got enough trees to reach our targets?

Falling levels of planting mean the carbon sink could be half what it is now by 2050


Currently UK forests and woodlands cover 13% (3.2 million hectares) of the UK total area and, as UK forestry is a net carbon sink, they contain around 150 million tonnes of carbon in the trees (biomass) and a further 640 million tonnes in the soil.

In the past three decades, and especially in the past decade new tree planting has fallen, see below. According to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) at current levels (3.2 million hectares) the carbon sink from forests and woodlands will be half of what it is now by 2050 due to ageing forest and lack of planting, as trees are unable to sequester more carbon on reaching an equilibrium.

As well as reducing the future net carbon sink the reduced rates of tree planting will also restrict the opportunities to harvest timber as discussed in Outlook for the timber market.

According to the CCC, in order to meet UK binding greenhouse gas capture targets, up to 1.5 million hectares of new woodland would be needed to store carbon by 2050. This would increase tree cover to 18% of the UK and would require around 40,000 hectares of tree planting per year to 2050. That is significantly more than twice the average number planted per year since 1976 and almost four times more than the average planting over the past 20 years.

Figure 10

New tree planting since 1976 To meet targets 1.5 million hectares of new woodland need to be planted
Source: Forestry Commission, Natural Resources Wales, Forest Service, grant schemes

LANDOWNER OPPORTUNITIES

Payments, capital and/or an annuity for ecosystem services are made to the “manager” of the natural capital to provide the ecosystem service. Many services are currently provided without charge or under local initiatives, but as the new environmental policy landscape becomes more established so does the potential for offering offsetting services and the development of associated markets. These might include:

  • Markets in avoided costs such as reducing nitrates in water, paid for by savings on water purification costs
  • Compulsory offsetting such as carbon trading through the Emissions Trading Scheme
  • Voluntary offsetting and links with CSR initiatives
  • Social prescribing and paid-for access to green space through NHS budgets
  • Green finance from corporate investors looking for long-term environmentally beneficial commercial projects.

Our Estate Benchmarking Survey clearly shows that woodland on rural estates is under-utilised. Over the past five years it has, on average, barely broken even and on many estates is a significant cost. We believe that woodland along with other natural assets on estates should be an income opportunity worth exploring and should be investigated as part of the estate’s current strategic planning.

One key area to consider is the loss of area-based payments over the next seven years. Where these payments have supported agricultural production on marginal land, there will be an opportunity to consider the next most beneficial use of this land over five to 10 years. A more site specific approach to cropping efficiency could free up awkward corners and patches of variable soils for woodland planting. It is worth noting that trees should be viewed as part of long term planning as it is not a land use that can easily revert back to agriculture, and land values may be impacted.

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