Research article

Outlook: Oxford Development

What's in store for the Oxfordshire deveopment market over the next five years?

South East to outperform London: Over the next five years, we are forecasting that the strongest performing region will be the South East, with average house price growth of 26.4%. This will be driven by an improving economy and buyers moving out of London in search of better value for money. However, the strong recent rise in values in Oxford means that buyers are becoming increasingly stretched. Affordability pressures coupled with mortgage constraints may limit future house price growth.

High tech shift: Education is the biggest employment sector in Oxfordshire. But expansion of student numbers is expected to be limited, with job growth in the sector forecast to be constrained over the next decade. IT and science and technology are set to be the major growth industries over the same period, building on the established strength of Science Vale. Providing housing that is affordable for young workers and linked to employment centres is a key challenge to be met.

Building in the right places: The location of future developments is the key issue affecting housing supply in Oxfordshire. Consensus on the capacity of Oxford to accommodate future development must be agreed between the county’s local authorities so that a strategy for growth can be produced and the required number of houses can be delivered, either through greenbelt review around Oxford or development in the rest of the county supported by infrastructure improvements.

Demand for land: The major housebuilders are focusing on building out their current sites, having replenished their land banks in 2013-14. There is still demand from regional housebuilders for small to medium sites of less than 100 units. In the longer term, there is always demand for well-located strategic sites.

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Table 3

TABLE 3Mainstream markets: five-year value forecasts

Source: Savills Research

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