Oxfordshire has suffered for many years from a shortfall in housing supply relative to demand. Businesses frequently cite a need for improved infrastructure and more housing in order to support growth. Increased co-operation between local authorities is required to establish a strategy for housing delivery given the constraints that restrict supply in Oxford.

The 2014 Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) set a projected need figure across the county’s five local authorities of 4,678 - 5,328 additional dwellings per annum in the period 2011 to 2031. The current rate of delivery is, however, far below this figure; only 1,730 new units were delivered in 2013-14. The biggest challenge facing the county is how to serve the demand generated by Oxford.

Supply in Oxford has been very limited in recent years. In 2013-14, only 70 new units were completed in the city. The rate of delivery should pick up, notably due to the commencement of the 900 unit Barton Park development on the northeastern edge of Oxford.

There is, however, no clear solution to the question of how and where new housing should be delivered. Oxford City Council has a tight administrative boundary and the city is constrained from expanding by the Green Belt.

The most recent SHMA for the city suggests that a significant proportion of Oxford’s Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) will have to be met outside the city boundary. This also poses a problem, as 30% of the non-urban land in the county is restricted by environmental or planning designations.

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^{Source: 2011 Census, Land Registry, Oxfordshire SHMA, Local Authority Annual Monitoring Reports (AMRs)}

Expanding towns

There are three potential options for future development. The current approach is to leapfrog the Green Belt and build the majority of housing through urban extensions at the market towns of the county: Great Western Park at Didcot, Longford Park at Banbury and, in the longer term, the delivery of 15,000 units through the proposed Garden City at Bicester.

Five year land supply considerations have been a driver of new sites coming forward, particularly in Cherwell and Vale of White Horse.

Continuing along this path will require major upgrades to the county’s transport infrastructure. ‘Investing in Oxford’s Future’, a 2014 report by Oxford City Council, states that “around 50% of Oxford’s workforce commutes by car into the City, which is unsustainable”.

The County Council is currently consulting on the draft Local Transport Plan, which proposes to redevelop four of the existing Park & Ride facilities around the city and build an additional seven, some of which would be linked to the city via a Bus Rapid Transit system.

In addition, a new Oxford Parkway station to the north of the city will be fully operational from 2016. Services from the Parkway station will use the Oxford-Bicester rail link and will connect via the Chiltern main line to services into Marylebone, increasing capacity.

We anticipate delivery from major development sites (over 150 units) over the next five years to be largely at Didcot, Wantage, Bicester and Banbury.

^{Source: Savills Research}

Green Belt Review

The second option is to expand Oxford itself through a review of the Green Belt. This is the approach which has been taken in Cambridge, where various sites within the Green Belt have been released over the past decade.

The local authorities in Cambridgeshire have managed this process through a memorandum of co-operation to ensure that the collective housing needs of the sub region are met. Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire work closely together through a combined housing trajectory and aligned Local Plans.

Sites on the edge of Oxford are available for development but this would similarly require a review of the Green Belt, with a particular focus to the north and south of the city. To deliver this will require co-operation between the county’s local authorities.

Some positive steps were made to this end through the joint 2014 SHMA, and the local authorities are continuing to work together through the Oxfordshire Growth Board to identify the most appropriate strategy to accommodate future development.

Need for co-operation

The third option is a combination of growth at the county towns and on the edge of Oxford in the Green Belt. Oxford City Council has determined through its latest Land Availability and Unmet Need Assessment that it has limited land to deliver residential development, and over the current Local Plan period there will be unmet need of around 20,000 homes to be met beyond the city boundaries. This remains to be accepted by the surrounding local authorities.

Given the historical undersupply in Oxfordshire, it is imperative that the local authorities agree a way forward, whether that results in a Green Belt review, plans for major infrastructure upgrades to join new developments to the city, or a combination of the two approaches.

If the process is overly protracted, it will only delay the delivery of major housing development, exacerbating the county’s affordability problems and hindering economic growth.