According to United Nations figures, the metro area population of Hanoi is currently around 4.7 million, much smaller than Ho Chi Minh at 8.6 million, but the city benefits from its status as National Capital and its relative proximity to China (Nanning, the nearest major Chinese city, lies approximately 200 miles to the north). Hanoi registered a modest 3.72% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 following 6.97% growth in the final quarter of 2019 as the impact of COVID-19 hit the economy in March.
COVID-19 hits classic retail; accelerates e-commerce
The COVID-19 pandemic has restricted residents’ ability to shop, travel and eat out, and the services sector has been hit hard. In Q1/2020, Hanoi’s total goods and service retail sales fell by 7.8 ppts to 2.3% YoY, accounting for approximately VND135.7 trillion (US$5.9 billion). The downward momentum is more obvious on a monthly basis, with the growth rate declining from 11.7% in January, to 7.6% in February and then falling significantly to -3% in March. Moreover, a strict drink-driving law was imposed in January to reduce excessive drinking in the city. Together with the impact of travel bans on the local economy, the measure has affected accommodation and F&B sales in Hanoi, with total sales down by 20.2% YoY.