The maxim that politics should not be discussed at the dinner table is generally a wise one, and also worth applying to other areas of life such as LinkedIn. 

That said, and strictly ring fencing my comments to the economic impact of Trump’s victory, I have been struck by the number of articles declaring that his victory spells disaster for both the Irish and international economy. Indeed, much of the rhetoric chimes with the coverage when Trump won his first term in 2016. For example, following Trump’s win in 2016, economist Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times:

“So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.”

Obviously, this did not come to pass and the global economy maintained growth rates of ~3%, in-line with those witnessed in the preceding years.

Fears of the impact of Trump’s election on Dublin’s office market were similarly vented in 2016. Compared to this election cycle, Trump had been much more vocal in singling out multinationals based in Ireland and there was uncertainty as to how these US multinationals would react to such political pressure. Furthermore, Trump’s cutting of the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% was seen as a threat to a key pillar of Ireland’s FDI competitive advantage. 

However, looking at Ireland’s corporate tax receipts, they grew under Trump’s previous reign from €7.5bn in 2016 to €11.8bn in 2020. This year they are expected to be €24.5bn and recent modelling by the Government suggest they could hit €37.1bn by 2030. Crucially, this forecast includes a €2bn negative impact arising from the OECD global minimum tax reforms.

Focusing specifically on Dublin’s office market, the market climbed to new heights during his Presidency. Crucially, this was primarily driven by US corporate expansions in Dublin - with the 11 million sq ft worth of take-up representing the strongest four-year period of any US President. To be clear, this was due to structural economic forces and not attributable to Trumps’ Presidency per se, but the point is that Trump’s Presidency did not lead to a retrenchment in Dublin’s office market. Looking ahead, we would not expect take-up to reach the same heights as it did between 2017 to 2020 due to the various prevailing structural headwinds, but equally, we do not expect Trump’s Presidency to be a handbrake on its growth.


A reasonable question is why does Ireland’s tax take and economic performance continue to be so resilient in the face of such policy attacks.

A common misconception is that lower corporate tax rates in the US are bad for Ireland because they erode its relative tax advantage. However, lower corporate tax rates increase the profitability of US corporates, thus generating more free cash flow to invest in expanding operations abroad. Thus, lowering US corporation rates can boost US multinational investment in Ireland. 

This time Trump is seeking to tweak his strategy of enticing companies back to the US by linking corporate tax rates to domestic production only. However, it is not clear how effective this will be given that the US economy is already close to full-employment, thereby limiting the available labour force to expand production with. 

Trade tariffs have also been mentioned, but their introduction are deemed to be a low probability outcome given the damaging effect they would also have on the US economy.

Lastly, the US stock market rose sharply on the back of Trump’s victory with higher economic growth expected, something which will benefit Ireland. However, inflation is also likely to be higher so yields on US Treasuries have also risen while the dollar has strengthened against the euro, as the interest rate differential between the US and Europe is likely to widen. A stronger dollar will make taking office space in Dublin cheaper for US firms, although it will be negative from the point of view of decreasing the value of profits generated in Ireland for repatriation.

To conclude, while it is true that Trump's victory brings greater uncertainty for Ireland than it would have under a Harris Presidency, the downside economic risks are likely being overstated once again.