Whether it's the football team that comes from two nil down to eventually win 3-2 or the gradual gathering of public support for a worthy cause – the importance of momentum cannot be underestimated.

The same is true of the property market. Last year’s rise in the cost of living, increasing interest rates and political uncertainty meant that many buyers and sellers understandably remained cautious.

Signs of improvement

The latest States of Guernsey property bulletin paints a mixed picture – although there are definite signs of improvement.

There were 145 Local Market sales between April and June – up from 52 in the previous quarter but 30 fewer than the same period in 2023.

The average Local Market purchase price meanwhile sat at £587,673 – 2.0% lower than the previous quarter, 2.2% lower than the same period in 2023 but still 43% higher than five years previously.

The average price for Open Market transactions was £1,803,750 - albeit from a concentrated pool of sales - compared with £1,633,125 in the second quarter of 2023.

Stability is key

Recent months have been more positive, with robust levels of activity and a number of new buyers registering their interest

The conclusion of the UK general election should also lead to greater stability, especially in the Open Market. Indeed, if previous cycles are anything to go by, we should start to see greater numbers of people exploring opportunities for a move, which should hopefully return transaction levels to historical norms.

There could also be a knock on effect from the changes that will see UK ‘non doms’ paying more tax from April next year – potentially making jurisdictions with benign tax environments such as Guernsey more attractive for some buyers.

To a certain extent that has already been happening. Even before the election we were seeing more enquiries from people looking to relocate.

Cautious optimism

The Bank of England’s recent cut to interest rates should add fresh impetus and – assuming that saving is passed to homeowners – it should generate greater interest and activity across the Local Market.

Of course, it will take time for increased activity to translate into completed sales, but underlying sentiment is strong. Despite some short term fluctuations, property prices over the long term have been relatively stable.

Buyers are still having to align their expectations with what they can afford, so sellers need to remain realistic on price, but market confidence is beginning to grow. Crucially, there’s a real sense that market forces are beginning to gather that all important momentum.

Rental prices continue to rise

Demand continues to be high for rental properties and the number of tenants looking certainly outweighs the number of available properties. That’s especially true for the Open Market, but it’s a very similar picture in the Local Market.

According to the latest States of Guernsey property bulletin, the average rental price for Local Market properties was £1,971 per calendar month in the second quarter of 2024 –  3.1% higher than the previous quarter, 5.7% higher than the second quarter of 2023 and 45.9% higher than five years previously.

Competition is strong and all properties that come to market are letting quickly.  Two bedroom properties appear in highest demand and also centrally located properties. This has largely been driven by people relocating for work, primarily teachers and healthcare workers.

The strength of demand combined with the lack of available properties means rental prices have risen accordingly – with no particular signs of a drop off.