• 20% year-on-year increase in the supply of farmland onto the GB public market in 2023
• Average farmland values forecast to rise modestly as the rate of growth slows from 2024
• 71% more farm machinery sales in 2023 than in 2015

2023 was a pivotal year for GB farmland supply with 157,200 acres marketed, which is 15% more than the previous five-year average, but still below the 162,000 acres average recorded during the years between 2003 and 2016. In its latest rural research publication Spotlight: The Farmland Market Savills suggests there is potential for publicly marketed supply to increase further with around 180,000 acres forecast per year by 2028.

Andrew Teanby, associate director Savills rural research comments, “Farmland supply is increasing because of changes largely driven by the agricultural transition; and our research into the number of machinery sales would seem to support this.”

Over the past three years retirement and change in farming policy have become far more common reasons for farmers selling their farm machinery compared to 2015, when new agricultural policies were not on the horizon. According to Savills analysis there were 71% more machinery sales in 2023 than in 2015.

Teanby adds, “Using the rise in machinery sales as an indicator we remain confident that more land will come onto the market because the sale of farmland is one potential outcome following a change in farming system/activity, tenancy surrender or retirement.”

Savills value forecasts for the farmland sector during the next five years are influenced by continuing economic challenges, weaker demand from all types of buyers in the marketplace and increased availability of farmland.

By land type across GB forecasts include 2.5% average annual growth for grade 3 farmland and 2% per annum for grade 3 pasture. Prime arable land, where the main purpose is food production, will continue to appeal and average values are forecast to increase by 3% per annum over the next five years.

Alex Lawson head of Savills rural agency comments, “Within any land type the range of values achieved remains significant. Individual sales will be influenced by specific property attributes and marked dynamics such as the location and strength of neighbour interest. However, as we have witnessed recently unforeseen global and economic shocks have the potential to impact all markets”.