The Dutch agricultural sector is in conflict with itself, mostly caused by external pressure. On the one hand, the agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of the Dutch economy. Agricultural exports have never been as high as they were in 2022. A total volume of €122.3 billion of agricultural goods was exported, with more than half of this coming from Dutch soil (€79.8 billion). On the other hand, Climate Change is increasingly changing the way in which the Dutch society looks at the industrial scale of the Dutch agricultural sector. Especially the use of pesticides, the emission of Methane gasses, and Nitrogen substances is up for debate. Next to this, Climate Change is expected to largely impact the viability of the current Dutch agricultural system.

Dutch farmers are, therefore, increasingly looking at alternative forms of future-proof agriculture. Throughout the country, various alternative forms of agriculture are popping up. Some farmers have even started by experimenting with viticulture: the production of wine. 2022 turned out to be a record year for Dutch vine growers, with a total production of 9,868,000 litres of wine. To put this in contrast, this is only 0.02% of the total wine production of France in 2022.

The most recent Climate Scenario’s by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) estimate that the Dutch climate will have changed considerably by 2035. By adhering to the most pessimistic scenario, average temperatures are expected to rise. This is disastrous for several current forms of agriculture. However, for Dutch viticulture, this might be a positive change. In this short article, Savills explores the future viability of Dutch viticulture. What are the Dutch “Terroirs of the Future”? Will the region of Zwolle turn into the French Bourgogne by 2035? Or can we start comparing the hills of Limburg to the Rhône Valley? As the agricultural system is largely interwoven in the fabric of the Dutch economy and its real estate, it is of interest to explore how viticulture can develop itself. After all, if a boom of viticulture is expected, auxiliary (industrial) real estate is needed to facilitate the growth in production of wine.

Unbottling the Dutch Potential

There are many factors that influence how well grapes can grow on Dutch soil. The acidity of the soil, the slope of the terrain, the hours of sunshine, and precipitation are all factors that influence the development of grapes and, thus, the taste of the Dutch-grown wine of the future. By combining and analysing the most pessimistic KNMI’s data on temperatures in 2035, soil types of the Netherlands, and the level of groundwater by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Savills has been able to pinpoint the Dutch Terroirs of The Future.

By calculating the Huglin Index, which is a commonly used warmth index to assess the suitability of grape varieties on vineyards, we see that the Netherlands will largely be suited for the cultivation of wine in 2035. The Wadden Islands, the area around Den Helder and some parts of Frisia are, according to the KNMI scenario, unsuitable for vine production. Adding to this, vines need soils, in most cases, that are fairly permeable in terms of water drainage. Clay and peat soils, are, therefore, mostly unsuitable for the production of vines. By using the Basisregistratie Ondergrond (BRO), which classifies all soil types in the Netherlands, it is possible to exclude these areas in GIS. Finally, as vines do not handle high levels of ground water well, all areas that have a ground water level higher than 85 centimetres are excluded. Various sources agree that most vines perform optimally at a ground water level between 85 centimetres and 250 centimetres.

The majority of the Netherlands is suitable for the production of vines. Overall, 283,417 agricultural parcels are suitable with a combined area of 1,257,850 hectares for the production of vines. These plots of land are mostly located in the Provinces of Zeeland, Brabant, Gelderland, Overijssel, Drenthe, Groningen and Limburg. The vines that can grow grapes that need the most heat can be found in the Southern part of the country. For example, Cabernet Franc can be grown in the Southern part of the Netherlands in 2035. This grape is not yet found in the Netherlands, and currently predominantly found in the Loire Valley in France, Northern Italy, and Catalonia (Spain).

Wine Not? Real Estate Challenges and Competitive Pricing

Viticulture can, thus, be a viable alternative for current Dutch farmers wishing to diversify their current business practices or motivated individuals wishing to explore new waters. The question if vines can grow in the Netherlands is answered, now the questions remains how the Dutch industrial landscape can accommodate viticulture.

The current Dutch industrial landscape (excl. logistics) consists of approximately 159,000,000 sq m of LFA. The majority of these properties can be found in industrialised areas in the vicinity of the larger (regional) cities of the Netherlands. As our analysis has proven, the Dutch Terroirs of the Future are not necessarily located close to large (regional) cities. Combine this with a current record-low vacancy of 1.30%, which Savills does not expect to increase tremendously in the near future, and it becomes clear that a lack of industrial space will influence the development of viticulture in the Netherlands. Inadequate availability of industrial space will hinder the development of viticulture in the Netherlands, as the production, bottling, and distribution of wine has to, in some cases, be done at a further distance from the vineyards. This puts an upwards pressure on Dutch wine prices, which might negatively impact the competitive advantage of locally produced wine over imported wine.