With so much written about the potential implications of the draft National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) on housing land supply, it is surprising so little has been written about other changes, or in the case of employment land, the lack thereof.

Nationally, it’s estimated that local plans are currently only allocating about two thirds of the land they should for employment development. This means that the latest draft NPPF has missed a golden opportunity to reframe the way in which employment land supply operates and to gear the planning system up to respond more quickly, thus facilitating economic growth.

Last year Savills and the British Property Federation focused on the ‘Suppressed Demand Model’ in their publication Levelling up: the logic of logistics. In this approach, future employment needs are modelled based on the current and future macroeconomic picture. Factored in are structural changes in the economy such as the turbocharged shift online caused by Covid and the increase in domestic inventory, with importers hedging against greater trading friction.

Contrast this with the way in which the supply of employment land requirements are currently prepared: a trend-based analysis – that is, historical take-up rates projected forward through the plan period with some minor adjustments to come up with the new local plan requirement. Historical analysis is helpful, but it takes no account of structural shifts.

The current and draft versions of the NPPF both say all the same right things: to set out a clear proactive vision and strategy; to allocate strategic sites to meet anticipated needs over the plan period; to address barriers to entry; to be flexible enough to respond to needs not foreseen in the plan; and to be able to respond rapidly to changes in economic conditions.

However, it could go much further. At this stage we are witnessing neither the level of ambition nor the accurate methodologies for forecast modelling that are needed. For a robust assessment of future land requirements it’s necessary to change the primary reliance on projecting forward historic employment trends.

Evidence is starting to mount as between 2019 and 2022 over 660 hectares of employment development has been allowed at appeal, with a significant proportion of this land being within the Green Belt. This tells its own story.

Further information

Contact Adam Key

Savills Planning