There has been much speculation about regeneration and house price growth along the Crossrail line, now renamed the Elizabeth line. But our analysis of its stations has found that only a third have seen a value uplift over the local market since construction began. That suggests we could see a Crossrail effect boost price growth now that the Elizabeth line is finally officially open and speedy connectivity becomes a reality.

The line will transform journey times along its route. It will enable residents of previously more isolated parts of London to travel directly into key employment centres such as the City and the West End. For example, the journey time from Forest Gate to Tottenham Court Road will be reduced by around 11 minutes and some 19 minutes will be shaved off the journey time between Tottenham Court Road and Hanwell.

Past rail projects have shown residential values around new stations outperform the wider market. Our analysis of the Jubilee extension found that in the five years after its opening there was an average of 7.3 per cent annual growth in the local areas of the new stations over and above the wider market. In the five years after the North London line was upgraded and became part of the London Overground, areas around stations saw an average of 5.7 per cent annual uplift.

Areas surrounding some new Crossrail stations have not been outperforming the wider area so far. Values within 500m of West London stations performed in line with the wider area (between 1-2km away) since construction started on Crossrail in 2008. In the areas around East London stations, where there is a higher concentration of flats, values have grown -0.3 per cent per year slower than the wider area. Once full service starts on the line and connectivity steps up, we expect to see a Crossrail premium emerge.

Homes around more central stations will see less direct impact from Crossrail, as they are already very well connected. However, they will reap the benefits of a more diverse influx of people, which can help support higher quality retail and employment opportunities. Some areas have already started to see the benefits of upgraded stations: home values in the 500m surrounding Bond Street, for example, outgrew the wider area by 2.2 per cent per year on average since 2008.

Our analysis suggests that while the eagerly anticipated Elizabeth line has yet to have an impact on house prices around the new stations, we expect more growth to come.

Further information

Contact Alfie Blagg

Contact Savills Research