The start of this new decade has been extraordinary – we are certainly living in unprecedented times.  As the decade progresses, there are a number of opportunities and challenges likely to shape planning in Wales. Here are 10 points we expect to play out over the next 10 years.

1. Welsh government climate emergency

A climate emergency was announced by the Welsh Government just over a year ago and it has since proposed amendments to flooding guidance that bring climate change into the Welsh flood map system, set requirements for all new homes to be powered by clean energy by 2050 and instructed all new development schemes to deliver a biodiversity net gain. Indicative of strong leadership and private sector innovation, similarly eye-catching policy requirements will surely follow, delivering meaningful results over the next decade.

2. A changing population structure

The 2018-based national population projections predict a gradual rise in population until 2028 and then an extended period of decline. In this time, the demographic is set to change dramatically with the percentage of over 65-year olds increasing by 17 per cent as the working age population falls by 1.5 per cent. The implications of this will start having significant impacts on the built environment, not least in terms of the number and type of homes needed.

3. Greater incorporation of technology into the planning process

Covid-19 has seen the Welsh Government make adjustments to keep the planning system moving with the introduction of virtual planning committees and site visits. While face-to-face planning committees are expected to return when possible, virtual site visits and virtual project meetings may be here to stay. The rise of online public engagement platforms may become an increasingly common substitute for the traditional meeting environment.

4. Renewable energy decisions

70 per cent of Wales’ energy needs to come from renewable projects by 2030, as part of the targets set by the Welsh Government. The last 10 years have been driven by the Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station on Anglesey and the Tidal Lagoon in Swansea Bay; this year will see key decisions made regarding if and how they are to proceed.

A decline in new onshore wind was seen over the last decade and while opportunity is now increasing solutions to grid capacity are required. The market is invested in large-scale solar photovoltaic projects while also seeking more integrated solutions, especially with increasing local demand, for example the charging of electric vehicles.

5. Key transport infrastructure

In June 2019 the First Minister announced that the M4 relief road around Newport, known as the ‘Black Route’, would not proceed. Over the next 10 years expect the Welsh Government to introduce alternatives, whether in the form of a re-aligned route or significant public transport investment. Similarly, we can expect to hear more about plans for the South Wales metro.

6. New planning policy documents

Wales’ first National Development Framework (NDF) is set to be adopted during 2020 and come the end of the decade a second NDF will have been implemented and work on a third should be advanced. Equally long awaited, the Strategic Development Plan – Cardiff Capital Region is expected to be adopted in 2024/2025 while towards the end of the decade we may also see the preparation of a second or even third Strategic Development Plan, whether that be for Swansea Bay or the A55 Corridor.

7. An increased focus on ‘technical’ planning

The last few years have seen a new requirement to secure approval from the Sustainable Drainage Approval Body for drainage associated with certain forms of new development and the rise of place-making in designing new developments. These will need to be successfully mastered by the profession and together will have significant impacts on what masterplans look like and more fundamentally the master-planning process.

8. The re-positioning of high street retail

The challenges facing retail are well documented and while out of town locations appear to be holding up, the high street vacancy rates are high and occupier demand low. Over the decade retail will be re-imagined and re-purposed and with town centre diversification largely on the agenda, it is likely that housing will become a greater component, which will bring compatibility challenges given emergence of the ‘agent of change’ principle.

9. The legislative impact of Brexit

With much of the legislation in Wales affected by European Union directives and guidance, the impact of Brexit on the legislative framework that planning operates in is not clear. Will there be mass deregulation? Will much of the legislation remain? Or will it lead to greater levels of autonomy and devolution?

10. An overhaul of the development management system

It is now more than a year since the Law Commission recommended a series of substantial overhauls to the planning system in Wales. While this appears to have gone quiet for now, it will be interesting to see if these recommendations are incorporated and, if so, to what extent they are diluted. After a period of deliberation there is still no timescale for their implementation.

Further information

Contact Savills Planning