When buyers are looking at areas in which to begin their property search, ease of travel to and from work, school and local amenities is often high on the list of considerations. Improving transport hubs, whether that be faster connections, new routes or better stations, also have an effect on delivery of homes and house prices. Our own research has shown house price premiums within 2km of improved infrastructure can be as much as 22 per cent.
Over the past two years, stations which saw the largest increase in passenger number use were those within a 19- to 39-minute journey time from a central London rail terminal. These are also the markets which have seen the largest increase in second-hand sale prices over the past five years – a 24 per cent increase against the average for England and Wales (44 per cent and 20 per cent respectively)
As affordability in the capital becomes more stretched, we expect up-and-coming locations with improving transport links to remain popular: locations such as Ebbsfleet, Apsley and Luton saw some of the largest increase in passenger use.The ripple effect of Londoners moving to the more immediate commuter belt is also set to continue, with movers searching for more space and bringing London’s equity with them – they will be targeting markets with quick links to the capital such as Sunningdale, Sevenoaks and Bromley.
We also expect the ripple effect to move beyond London’s commuter zone to markets in the Midlands and the North, particularly those locations on or close to new and improving lines such as HS1 or the Midland mainline. Cities such as Bristol and Manchester, where infrastructure is due for improvement, also look set to benefit. These areas have seen house price rises more in line with wages and therefore remain more affordable. They will have the most capacity for growth over the next few years.
The chart below shows that stations with the largest increase in passenger use over the past two years are on new or improving lines and have seen higher house price growth (in orange) than their surrounding local areas.
.png "Stations and property price growth")
