London’s super prime market continued to benefit from residual activity following a relatively healthy Q4. Nevertheless, buyers and sellers have become increasingly cautious as they continue to absorb the political and fiscal changes of 2024. This is also in light of ongoing volatility across global stock markets and a corresponding focus on wealth retention.

Both the number of sales (-27%) and total value transacted (-39%) were markedly lower than the final quarter of 2024. However, this dynamic has also played out over the previous three years, with the last quarter of the year outperforming the subsequent first quarter of a new year since 2022 by both metrics.

Indeed, the first quarter’s sales volumes were more or less equivalent to their position in 2024, with only one more sale taking place this year. This figure was also 16% higher than the pre-Covid average for Q1 2017-2019. The overall value of £0.96 billion was 3% higher than in the first quarter of 2024 and 4% higher than the Q1 pre-pandemic average.

However, this apparent resilience nevertheless belies a more judicious atmosphere among both buyers and sellers at this discretionary price point.

Trends behind the data

Of particular note, the £10m-£15m price band, in which 16 sales took place, displayed particularly strong performance this quarter, with overall values (£0.19bn), 64% above Q1 2024 and 33% above Q1 2023.

Elsewhere, flats as a proportion of houses at this price point were at their highest level for a first quarter since 2015, accounting for 48% of sales. This supports an observable shift away from refurbishment opportunities and towards smaller, pied-à-terre properties, often furnished in advance as turn-key homes.

OUTLOOK

Persistent price sensitivity across prime central London means that average prices are 21.2% down on their 2014 peak, representing potential value for certain buyers, particularly if they are looking to transact in a US dollar-pegged currency. This will be predicated on its strength relative to sterling at any given period. Additionally, within the context of wider economic volatility and ongoing global conflicts, London still represents a relatively secure haven and may be set to benefit from some flights of capital.

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