Overview

2024 threw up some surprising trends for the food and beverage (F&B) property market in Glasgow. You would be forgiven for thinking this would be the worst possible time to open a new restaurant or bar, with the cost of living crisis and rising operating costs making the pursuit of a profit a fanciful notion. But here comes the rub: in 2024, Glasgow city centre actually experienced a spate of new F&B openings, with the year close out showing a total of 34 new eateries opening in the city.

Savills research highlights that this was the highest volume of F&B transactions in the city centre since 2018, and 25% more than we reported in 2023. Delve a little deeper and the focus of occupier demand points to the biggest change in the local market for many years. Of the 34 new business openings in 2024, almost 90% were from local independent operators. This has not always been the case – in 2023, the split between local and national/chain brands was close to 50:50, so for 2024, the “rise of the independent” seems more relevant than ever before.

In the context of a challenging trading climate, these encouraging signs of life in our largest city will surprise many. So what is really going on in the property market, and what new trends do we see coming for 2025?

Transaction volumes

The chart below outlines the number of F&B openings in Glasgow city centre since 2018, split between national and local brands:

Striking new openings

Among the most eye-catching openings in the city centre in 2024 were:

Ten reasons why F&B brands should have Glasgow in their sights for 2025…

We often get asked by F&B operators less familiar with Glasgow what makes the city tick and whether it would be a good location for them to open in. Here are ten reasons why it may well be:

• Size matters. Glasgow has the fourth largest catchment of any UK city outside of London and the largest in Scotland. With a total catchment population of 1.95 million, the volume of people gives a strong customer platform for a new business opening.

• A diverse demographic. Glasgow has always had a gritty reputation, but the size of the city gives access to a very diverse demographic. For F&B operators who target higher income groups, many don't immediately realise that the catchment includes 550,000 categorised as having upper or upper/middle affluence.

• Retail spin-off. Glasgow has an enviable ranking as the top shopping city in the UK outside of London, and shoppers come in their droves. With the city's best shopping thoroughfare, Buchanan Street, reporting annual footfall of 17 million, it is no surprise that the most sought-after F&B properties in the city are close to this footfall hotspot.

• Public transport. Glasgow has one of the best suburban rail networks outside of London. Combine this with a large catchment and you can see why, from an accessibility perspective, the evening economy can thrive.

• Music/Sport/Corporate. Don't underestimate the potential of these sectors to drive customer numbers. Whether it be a concert at the 14,300 capacity OVO Hydro arena, a major football match, or an international conference at the SECC (think COP26), the city is one of the strongest in the UK from this trio of sources.

• High hotel occupancy. Glasgow has 16,000 hotel rooms which in a typical year run at 80% occupancy. Six new hotels have opened since 2023 in the city centre – further adding to the customer base for F&B brands.

• A big student market. Glasgow has two of the largest universities in the UK, with 26,000 students at the University of Glasgow (in the west end) and 23,000 at the University of Strathclyde (located in the city centre). F&B brands that target student customers should take note.

• City living. The level of planning applications for residential development in the city points to a sharp increase in the urban population over the next ten years. Over 7,000 units are currently in the planning pipeline, and with a target to double the city population by 2035, this is poised to offer a boost to the evening economy.

• A profitable market. Perhaps the one question Savills is most asked by brands looking to open in Glasgow is “How are other occupiers trading?”. Glasgow is still in a recovery phase post-Covid and the trading picture is symptomatic of this, with some districts feeling the lingering effect of disruption more than others. However, feedback from many national operators who operate prime sites put Glasgow in the top 10% of their UK bar and restaurant portfolios, measured by both turnover and profit margin. Some have even reported that turnover is now in excess of 40%, above pre-Covid levels. Granted, turnover growth has been essential for the occupiers to offset sharply rising operational costs, but notwithstanding that, this is a clear signal of the underlying strength of the local market.

• A big night-out city. Glaswegians love a party – and the city comes alive on a Friday and Saturday night. Brands should therefore expect to see a weekend spike in turnover which surpasses most other UK cities.

Savills market predictions for 2025

• BUDGET IMPLICATIONS
  
  Businesses will clearly be impacted by the increase in national insurance contributions announced in the Budget, which becomes effective on 1 April. The impact will be offset to an extent by the lower-than-expected increase in the minimum wage in 2025; however, such a sharp increase in costs will impact profitability. Unfortunately, we expect to see some less well-financed operators close in 2025 as a result of this increasing tax burden.

• BIG BRANDS TO RETURN
  
  Notwithstanding the above, national operators will make a comeback in 2025. Last year, Savills had over 20 brand meetings with national and international operators considering the city, suggesting pent-up demand exists. A lack of the right-sized, favoured prime sites has held back the market, but there are signs this will change in 2025.

• WATCH OUT FOR…
  
  We expect to see some eye-catching new openings this year, including the arrival in the summer of leading Indian operator Dishoom on Nelson Mandela Place. Given how successful Dishoom has traded in Edinburgh, it is exciting to see it choose Glasgow for its next UK opening, and Savills is delighted to have brokered the transaction for the landlord.

• PRIME RENTS TO RISE
  
  Occupier demand for the very best F&B properties in Glasgow will remain strong in 2025. Supply of the best prime sites remains limited, and with demand still evident, we expect to see 100% prime rents by up to 20% by the end of the year (from £45 per sq ft to £55 per sq ft for the best addresses). Demand for more secondary sites is expected to be more subdued, and rents are not expected to increase.

• WHAT WILL LEASE?
  
  Fitted restaurant units will remain most in demand due to the lower cost of reformatting by a new operator. A new F&B fit-out requires deep pockets, and while shell properties in 100% prime locations will continue to lease, in more peripheral areas, a pre-existing fit-out is essential for landlords.

• SIX BRANDS TO WATCH
  
  Among the brands most actively seeking space just now in the city are ARC Inspirations, Albert's Schloss, Sticks'n'Sushi, Blacklock, Big Mamma, and San Carlo. We predict to see some of these exciting new names debuting in Glasgow this year.

• WATCH OUT FOR…
  
  Changes to licensing policy did aid the market in 2024, with the trial to extend opening hours from midnight to 1am welcomed in the industry. Glasgow, however, still restricts trading hours more than many other UK cities, and we would like to see a further move to permit more 2am licences to let the city respond to changing consumer habits and benefit from a more staggered departure time for customers.

• PLANNING POLICY IMPACT
  
  In 2023, planning policy in Scotland changed, with permitted development rights granted to convert shops to restaurants without the need for a change-of-use application. In Glasgow, this has not resulted in a glut of new restaurants appearing on our prime shopping streets. With prime retail rents in Glasgow over six times higher than F&B rents, the status quo is set to remain this year, as our best shopping streets remain unaffordable for most F&B operators.

• CAR OR NO CAR?
  
  After an industry backlash, plans to introduce evening parking charges in the city centre were put on hold, to be reviewed in 2025. At present, parking charges do not apply from 6pm onwards, and if these were to be introduced, it would undermine trading performance and act as a deterrent to brands looking to invest in Glasgow. More than ever, Glasgow has to be “open for business”, and we hope – and anticipate – that this threat will not reappear this year.

• A CHANCE TO SHINE
  
  We expect to see one of the best-ever F&B opportunities released to the market by Savills to secure a high-profile tenant by the summer. Extending to 25,000 sq ft and located on one of the most sought-after addresses at 30 St Vincent Place, the Grade A-listed building will also showcase the best of Glasgow's Victorian-era architecture (pictured below).

• MIXING IT UP IN OUR MALLS
  
  The F&B scene in Glasgow's city centre malls has changed out of all recognition since 2022. St Enoch, the largest mall in the city centre, now has 15% of all floorspace dedicated to F&B and leisure uses, and we expect to see new openings to join the likes of Wagamama, Nando's, Cosmo, Wingstop, and KFC. Eyes are also returning to Princes Square on Buchanan Street, where four new F&B openings have transformed the development (The Clubhouse, Maison by Glaschu, Zibibbo and Launch).

• HOMEGROWN TALENT
  
  The “rise of the independents” in Glasgow is now seeing some of this homegrown talent expanding their growth ambitions to new territories. With the likes of Scoop Restaurant Group, Di Maggio's Restaurant Group, Maki & Ramen, The Spanish Butcher, and Pizza Punks looking nationally and, in some cases, internationally, the potential for some of Scotland's best F&B brands is coming to the fore in 2025. It is also a testament to the creativity and entrepreneurial spirit of our best Scottish operators, and Savills is excited to be assisting many of them with their property expansion plans.