Savills

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Market in Minutes - the Netherlands - Q2 2024

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Contacts & Related Research

Read all about the latest developments in the Dutch real estate market.

Savills anticipates an increase in leasing and investment activity in the Dutch real estate market during the second half of 2024. The Dutch economy is expected to grow, supporting demand from both occupiers and investors. However, the pace of recovery will vary across different sectors, depending on their underlying economic conditions. Although distressed sales are expected to remain largely absent, investment volumes will benefit from a more stable interest rate climate. Nevertheless, ongoing differences in pricing expectations between sellers and buyers continue to hinder numerous transactions in the second half of 2024, leaving investment levels well below those seen before 2023.

Key findings:

  1. Despite persistent economic stagnation, the office and retail sector are experiencing increased user activity, and the outlook for the second half of the year is improving. The largest growth in take-up was seen in the office market with a 16.2% increase in H1 2024 compared to H2 2023 and even a 44.5% increase compared to H1 2023. This indicates a growing interest in office space despite ongoing tightness in the labour market and the subsequent increase in labour costs. The retail sector shows more stable growth in take-up fuelled by increased consumer confidence, driven by a significant rise in wages.
  2. By contrast, the industrial and logistics sectors are more impacted by economic stagnation, as both import, export and production have all decreased. Nevertheless, take-up increased with 9.8% in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, but decreasing by 3.6% compared to H2 2023, indicating a slower growth for the industrial and logistics sector. In addition, vacancy rates are rising, especially in the logistics sector. By analysing vacancy per location and construction year, secondary locations turn out to be less in demand.
  3. Investment volumes in hotels (+101% Y.O.Y.) and retail (+74% YOY) have strongly recovered in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023. This reflects improved investor confidence in these asset classes, which have taken considerable hits over the last years in the context of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, and a drop in consumer confidence and spending.
  4. Large investment transactions (>€50 million) were largely absent in 2023 and H1 2024. The total investment volume of all transactions of more than €50 million summed, accounted for “just”1/3rd of the total investment volume. This follows low appetite of institutional capital towards real estate, as these investors traditionally enter with higher volumes but now aim to avoid turbulent times in the real estate market.