Welcome to the hub page for our housing market forecasts, which we released after a tumultuous year, on 8th November 2023. 

We have summarised our expectations for both the prime and mainstream markets in the table and bullet points below.

However, for more insight into what’s behind our thinking you can click on the links below, which will take you to articles that have been written by different members of our residential research team, giving their take on the areas in which they specialise.

Lucian Cook looks at how the experience of the past 12 months has shaped our expectations for the mainstream market going forward.

Emily Williams looks at what economic forecasts mean for the outlook for mainstream house prices, while Nicholas Gibson considers how this varies in different parts of the UK.

Ed Hampson delves into the details behind our expectations for the composition of housing transactions.

Dan Hill looks at the outlook for mainstream rental values, after a burst of unusually strong growth, while Frances McDonald sets out the detail of our forecasts for prime London and country markets.

Our forecasts in summary

Mainstream Headlines

• We are forecasting price falls of -3.0% next year, as the base rate is expected to stay at its current peak well into 2024. However, when the Bank begins to cut rates in the second half of 2024, there will be more capacity for growth, with our UK 5 year figure at 17.9% (compared to last year’s 2023-2027 figure of 6%).
• In the early part of our forecast period, the strongest performing regions are the North, Wales and Scotland. But by the end of the forecast period (2028), we expect that London will begin to outperform the UK again. This will be a result of improving affordability creating more capacity for growth, coupled with a stronger economic outlook for London than the rest of the UK.
• Mainstream transactional activity is expected to pick up from next year, with both mortgaged home movers and first time buyers increasing activity. By 2026, transactions will return to c.1.16 million per year, and will stay at that level until 2028, with only mortgage buy-to-let activity remaining muted.