Another way to look at how the last 20 years have transformed Oxfordshire is to take a step back from the housing market and commercial investment, and look at the change in land use across the whole county.

Starting with Oxford, despite considerable population growth, the city’s physical footprint has hardly grown since 2000. The size of the built-up areas and commercial areas looks broadly similar in 2018 as it did at the turn of the millennium. Land available for residential development in the city remains heavily constrained by green belt, extensive flood plains and a city boundary tight to the existing urban footprint, with development pushed elsewhere.

Zooming out to the wider county reveals a different story altogether. Most development since 2000 has been concentrated in extensions of major towns in Oxfordshire. In contrast to Oxford’s constrained boundaries, the larger, more rural authorities enjoy greater space and, in absolute terms, far fewer constraints on land use. It is therefore easier for these local authorities to allocate land for housing and other development, a fact that is reflected in future housing allocations where the expansion of market towns and transport hubs (such as Bicester, Banbury, Didcot and Witney) seen over the last 20 years looks set to continue.

Planning for the future delivery of land

Given the backdrop of an affordability-constrained housing market, a growing demand for commercial land for uses such as life sciences, careful thought is required on how to plan for future land use across Oxfordshire. Looking ahead, many of the best opportunities for development and future growth are outside of the city, increasing competition for land in these districts.

There are examples to date of productive cooperation between councils in Oxfordshire. 4,400 homes near Kidlington, just north of Oxford, were included in a review of Cherwell District’s Local Plan – which notably included the release of Green Belt land. South Oxfordshire, meanwhile, has allocated land for up to 4,800 homes and a 10 hectare extension to Oxford Science Park to the south of the city. These examples represent significant Green Belt release for the first time in 40 years, allowing for physical expansion of the city, beyond its administrative boundary. More broadly, county-wide housing targets are in place to 2031, offering a level of stability for both planners and developers.

New development will have to also incorporate Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG), which ensures that development has a positive impact on habitat and diversity rather than simply mitigating any losses. The policy position varies across the county in terms of the level of uplift. However, the Environment Act, which comes into effect in November 2023, will require a minimum 10% uplift. The most recent version of the Oxfordshire Plan 2050 proposed a 20% biodiversity net gain benchmark for the whole of the county, which is an indication of the ambition of the local authorities for emerging local policy documents going forward. As a consequence, demand is likely to increase for lower-quality farmland which could be used for offsite BNG schemes.

There is also the matter of how to connect development within the wider county. Infrastructure and public transport connections to and within the city centre and around Oxfordshire and to the wider Thames Valley are crucial to support future growth of the county. There is much room for improvement on this front.

A significant drop-off in connectivity, one of the key metrics used by Government when assessing Levelling Up funding, was identified outside of Oxford, particularly in South Oxfordshire, West Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse.

But there have been recent positive steps. Oxford Parkway station is a core focus for unlocking land to the north of Oxford for both housing and commercial development. Capacity at Oxford station is being increased, with work due to complete in 2024. Re-opening the Cowley Branch rail line, which may see new services operating from 2026, creates further opportunities to unlock sites near Oxford and beyond the city centre. Furthermore, in the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor confirmed funding for East West Rail, underlining that the Government acknowledges the economic importance of the knowledge corridor between Oxford and Cambridge.

Future requirements for commercial land

The profile of new commercial space is critical to the future success of Oxford and the market is delivering new stock to accommodate future demand, some of which will be for companies that may not yet exist.

At the end of Q3 this year, there was around 427,000 sq ft of available space in the two zones closest to the city centre. This will have to absorb some of the corporate growth, but with available laboratory space only standing at 27,000 sq ft, there will be short-term pressures. Companies may be forced to locate away from Oxford which risks the city’s economic growth prospects. Positively, with improved accessibility and promotion of new schemes in Zone 3+, from next year onwards, there will be more delivery of stock in the market to retain and attract companies of all sizes

A need for county-wide planning

A fundamental challenge for planning successfully for the future of Oxford is that local authority boundaries at the district level do not match the geography of the city’s economic reach. This demands that the local authorities across Oxfordshire work together to produce coordinated plans so that the city’s growth potential can be realised along with other centres of economic activity across the county. The five-year housing delivery figure for Oxford is equivalent to only 77% of need, highlighting the need to deliver beyond the city’s boundaries.

This clear need for a strategic approach to county-wide planning underpinned the last round of Local Plan reviews and delivered a stronger, Oxford-centric component to growth than had been seen in previous years. The ability to replicate the success of that approach has been significantly hindered by the recent demise of the Oxfordshire Plan 2050. It remains to be seen what cross-boundary mechanisms are to be put in place to compensate for the loss of the 2050 Plan and whether these adequately address the ‘duty to cooperate’.

Key takeaways

• Oxford’s physical footprint has hardly grown since 2000, with the more rural areas outside of Oxford picking up the overspill from the city. Competition for land will start to become a lot tighter in the local authority districts outside of the city.
  
  
• Infrastructure and public transport connections to and within the city centre and around Oxfordshire and to the wider Thames Valley are crucial to support future growth of the county.

_{Read the articles within Oxford: A global competitor below.}