Norfolk has seen significant growth in new build delivery over the past few years, with the proportion of housing transactions which are new build, increasing from 8% in 2014 to 13% in 2019. This puts the supply of new homes at 0.9% of existing stock, a level of delivery broadly in line with the national figure.

This relatively healthy level of housing delivery has been helped by Help to Buy. There were 953 Help to Buy equity loans issued in Norfolk in 2018, accounting for 72% of all new build transactions in the county.

This may cause alarm for developers who are looking ahead to 2021, when new restrictions on Help to Buy use will come into play. This will restrict Help to Buy to first-time buyers only, and impose a regional cap of £407,000 in the East of England.

However, our analysis shows that for Help to Buy use in 2018, only 13% of loans issued would have been excluded under these new criteria. This varies across the county; 19% would be excluded in the local authorities of North and South Norfolk, but only 4% in Norwich.

Replacing Help to Buy

As it stands now, Shared Ownership occupies a similar but much smaller place in the market to the Help to Buy equity loan. Across Norfolk, Shared Ownership accounts for less than 3% of all new build sales.

However, our analysis shows that, given the same deposit, monthly costs for the two schemes are similar. Shared Ownership offers lower barriers to potential homeowners, as the initial deposit can be as low as 1.25% of the total property value.

Consequently, once Help to Buy ends in 2023, Shared Ownership will become the main route to homeownership for those otherwise unable to access the market. This could increase demand for Shared Ownership homes nationally by over 15,000 homes per year.

The end of Help to Buy isn’t the only shift that developers will need to be mindful of. In the longer term, a demographic shift of who is buying, and the sort of home they need will be a decisive factor.

Demographic shifts

Norfolk had a population of 898,400 in 2018, and this is projected to grow to 953,000 over the next decade, and to almost a million by 2040.

The vast majority of this growth will be in the higher age ranges. By 2040, an estimated 36% of the Norfolk population will be over 65 years old, while the national figure is expected to be 30%.

Dealing with this ageing population will be a key challenge for Norfolk in the upcoming decades. It will provide developers with the opportunity to deliver more targeted housing for older people that meets the need of this specific demographic, as well as delivering family housing to ensure younger generations remain in the area.

_{Read the articles within Norfolk and Norwich: Adapting for change below.}