Competitor towns

Guildford is just one of a number of towns circling London’s sphere of influence, benefiting from its proximity for commuters to the capital for work, but with a commercial core of its own, also pulling in workers from nearby itself. Places such as Reading, Chelmsford, St Albans and Sevenoaks are comparable locations on that front, but also competitor towns competing to attract a similar profile of commercial occupiers to drive their economies.

Oxford and Cambridge are undoubtedly the star performers in this field, but Guildford is amongst the ‘best of the rest’ with a strong and growing economy. With it, of course, comes challenges.

Main drivers of local economy

In recent years, the creative, professional, scientific and tech industries have continued to prosper. This will be key for the towns future success, as these are projected to be amongst the 12 UK growth industries for 2017 – 2027. As a proportion of total GVA, these sectors make up over 5% more in Guildford than the national average. Competitor towns that include Oxford and Cambridge only beat the national proportion by less than 2%.

According to Oxford Economics data, the proportion of people employed in the creative, professional, scientific and tech sectors has risen across Guildford, far ahead of its competitors. Across Guildford itself, 22% of the workforce in 2019 were employed within these industries, rising to 26% across the wider Guildford area including Woking, Runnymede, Elmbridge and Surrey Heath.

This compares to 19% and 18% across the competitor towns and the South East. The five Guildford local authorities combined currently employ 83,000 people within the creative/tech sector. Reading, Cambridge and Oxford employ 79,500 in total. 42% of the working population in Guildford is qualified to at least Level 4 or higher, in line with the South East average.

In terms of new housing supply, the competitor locations around London have performed more positively over the past decade, outperforming the national average.

Affordability & wages

In order to have a thriving and sustainable town centre, affordability, where those who work in the town can afford to live in the town, is key. This is becoming increasingly difficult in places like London to the detriment of business and the inability to retain staff.

Our chart shows workplace vs residence earnings, with higher scores reflecting higher earnings amongst residents compared with workers. Places like St Albans, where trains take just 21 minutes to St Pancras are increasingly becoming purely commuter hubs, potentially at the expense of commercial success. On the other end of the spectrum, Woking has high-tech employees like McLaren where workers likely commute from outside of the borough. Guildford in this regard is a success where earnings between residents and workers is near parity. This bodes well for the sustainability of Guildford’s commercial core, and whilst house prices have increased and affordability has worsened, relative to other competitor towns, it is in a much healthier state.

However, with a growing employment base in industries such as gaming, technology and creative arts, along with a historically desirable area to live due to good schools and connectivity to London, an ‘affordability challenge’ will always persist.

Workplace vs Residence

Average earnings proportion has come back towards 100; i.e. equal. This is more sustainable. At the other end of the spectrum, St Albans and Surrey Heath have a lack of commercial centre and are largely commuter hubs. 

The productivity challenge

Productivity measured through GVA per worker shows Guildford performing similarly to many of its competitors. In terms of overall output, Cambridge, Oxford and Reading with their larger populations stand out clearly above the rest. However, local authorities with smaller populations and jobs such as Woking, Runnymede and Elmbridge punch far above their weight with employers such as McLaren, Mercedes and Sony.

Growth in GVA over the past 10 years shows a different picture with Guildford and its competitor towns, growing between 7% and 9% respectively. This isn’t just a Guildford problem however, as stagnant productivity has been a national issue since the onset of the GFC with both the UK and South East growing similarly at 8%.

The local authorities surrounding Guildford with their high-tech industries have been much more productive over the same period, with growth of 17%.

_{Read the articles within Guildford: Driving Surrey below.}