Top five hot spots

The index measures 23 European countries against 17 metrics, which assess the demographics change potential, identifies the best and the easiest housing market to enter and evaluates both private wealth and government old-age pension levels. The final results show that Germany, France, UK, Italy and Poland top the index, each country backed by different prevailing drivers.

1. Germany: At the top of the demographics potential.
   Germany has the largest elderly population (70-79 years old) and it will remain the largest in ten years. The level of affluence amongst the elderly population is not particularly high compared to other countries benchmarked in this index but still stands above the average. However, with one of the highest saving ratio (17.3%, the third-highest behind Luxembourg and Sweden) germans have a greater ability to disinvest once reaching the retirement age. Germany benefits from a highly liquid property market and a matured residential market. Senior housing is not yet an established market. It is increasingly associated with care home residences enabling to accompany seniors throughout their later life by providing both care-intensive and non-care services as their needs change over time, whilst avoiding another move. The country offers strong potential for elderly demand, notably for lower care and affordable age-restricted housing options.
2. France: Wealthy and fast-growing elderly population.
   French seniors are relatively wealthy, enjoying a good income level, a high saving rate and a comparatively low housing cost burden ratio. They also benefit from a high level of old-age government pensions. The French elderly population is the fourth largest amongst the 23 countries surveyed in this report but will become the second-largest by 2028. The housing market is strongly tenant-friendly oriented. However, some of the tight housing regulations in France, do not apply to age-restricted residences. The senior housing model is growing fast thanks to a few large operators offering different types of concepts, going from urban and semi-urban apartments to out-of-town houses in senior villages, offering a wide range of services included in the rent or optional “a la carte”. Domitys, the market leader, has plans to expand into Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy. France totals 620 senior housing residences, representing more than 47,000 units.
3. UK: Strong demographics and matured housing market.
   The senior population in the UK is the third-largest in Europe and it is expected to grow rapidly in the next 10 years. The median of seniors’ income is above average but the overall level of debt of British citizens is high and their saving rate is relatively low. The UK has the most liquid real estate market in which the residential segment is very matured and not overly regulated compared to other European countries. The senior housing model remains the least established of all age-restricted housing concepts. The vast majority (around 99%) of UK retirement housing is either sold as leasehold or let at social rents through non-profit housing associations. Yet, senior housing rental models are emerging. Since the financial crisis, the UK underwent the deepest fall in home ownership of any country in the EU. It is currently the fifth-lowest of the 24 countries benchmarked in this report. This, added to the fact that new flexible ways of living are gaining ground, the UK has strong potential for growing senior housing demand.
4. Italy: Largest share of elderly people.
   Italy has the highest share of elderly people as a percentage of the total population. The size of the Italian senior population is also the second-largest across the 23 European countries. The level of affluence amongst the elderly population is not very high compared to other countries but in line with the average and the housing cost burden ratio is the third-lowest of the 23 countries. Additionally, old-age pension allocation provided by the Italian government is significant, the fourth highest. From their cultural background, Italian are very attached to their family and their home. Given the very large proportion of elderly people, there is no way that younger Italians can care for, not just one, but three to four senior relatives. Traditions are slowly giving room to independence. A quarter of Italian aged 65 or over would consider moving to new accommodation in a senior housing residence when the time is right.
5. Poland: Fast-growing elderly population.
   Today, the share of senior people (aged between 70–79 years old) in Poland, is the lowest out of the 23 European countries (6.82%) but the size of the elderly population, which is already the fifth-largest will more than double in the next ten years. Fast-growing elderly population combined with the lowest number of dwellings per inhabitant, make Poland a great prospective country for the senior housing market. The financial foundations of the elderly population is just in line with the average but should gradually increase in line with their strong economy. Over the past 10 years, the amount of old-age pension per inhabitant grew faster than average, although it remains relatively low compared to the amounts allocated in western European countries.

Beyond the top five

Beyond these five countries, lie many other opportunities depending on investors and operators strategies.

Spain also has a large and fast ageing society. Dutch seniors benefit from good financial conditions thanks to high amounts of old-age pensions and a fast-growing economy, whilst Dutch citizen are very-opened to age-restricted housing options. In Austria, the number of wealthy elderly people is expanding rapidly, home ownership is low and rental growth is strong. Nordic countries and Belgium, all have wealthy elderly populations and mature residential markets. In Luxembourg, the senior population is small in size but has the highest level of affluence, which could be a target for small scale luxury senior living residences.

Methodology

This research covers 23 European countries including Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the UK.

The analysis used to develop the Senior housing opportunity index draws on 17 different indicators gathered into four matrices: Demographics fundamentals, Housing/property metrics, Wealth and Pensions parameters.

The data used for the index was collected at a national level. Where possible these indicators use the latest annual data available, past five-year growth and five-year forecasts, to ensure the index incorporates a forward-looking view.

The various indicators have been ranked and weighted across the 23 countries included in this report allowing us to develop the index. The results of the index do not determine the exclusive attractiveness of a given country to prospective senior housing market players, it purely provides a macro guide for investors, operators and developer to incorporate as part of their specific strategy.

_{Read the articles within European Senior Housing below.}