Research article

Focus on European investment markets

Additional features such as market transparency, political stability, legal systems, liquidity, occupier terms and domestic spend drivers have also had a bearing on investor attractiveness and in turn pricing

Occupational demand for ‘destination’ markets in Europe is apparent in investment pricing with the largest visitor markets of London and Paris attracting the lowest yields.

With this in mind we have examined 19 European cities in regards to potential trading performance (retail spend, international visitors, presence of HNWI, relative affluence of domestic population) and occupier terms (average lease lengths and rent review structures) to try and identify those markets that may prove more attractive to investors in regards to current pricing (transaction yields).

Key European cities – international visitors and prime yields

Source: Savills Research; Mastercard Destination Index.

The data model created based on the metrics detailed above, identified London as the most attractive investment market despite it being one of the most expensive cities to buy into, due to the size of its retail market and its relatively attractive occupier terms for investors/landlords (15-year upward only rent review leases being the norm in prime locations).

Amongst European markets, Paris also featured highly as an attractive retail investment market, albeit was out ranked by Munich. This was due in part to some unique features of the French legal system such as ‘Loi Pinel’ (‘Loi Pinel’ grants tenants security of tenure providing them with the entitlement to either renew their lease at the end of the term or to receive compensation if the landlord refuses to renew).

While Munich is a much smaller retail market than London and Paris, its relatively affluent domestic population, attractive occupier terms from an investor perspective and its relative pricing (prime yields are 60 basis points higher than London and Paris), enhances its potential investor appeal. Similar factors placed Madrid and Barcelona in the top five in terms of investor attractiveness, although recent political uncertainty in the wake of the Catalan independence movement may temper investor confidence in Barcelona over the short term.

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