Savills

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Tokyo Residential Leasing Q2/2021

Rents correct again amid market headwinds

The peak moving season brought fewer new residents to the 23W than previous years.

  • Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) saw a mild decline of 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 4.0% year-on-year (YoY) to JPY3,964 per sq m in Q2/2021.
  • Average mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W) have continued their descent and are currently at JPY4,670 per sq m – a fall of 1.6% QoQ and 5.8% YoY.
  • The C5W premium has marginally increased to 17.6%, up 0.2 percentage points (ppts) from the last quarter.
  • At the ward level, only a few areas posted positive growth on a quarterly basis. Here, Toshima in the Inner North marked the strongest growth this quarter with a modest gain of 0.9%. On an annual basis, Katsushika took the crown, with rents rising by 5.7%.
  • In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band have seen a correction this quarter and currently remain the least expensive size band in a complete reversal of the historic trend.
  • The average occupancy rate in the 23W decreased by 0.7ppts to 95.4%. The C5W, meanwhile, also saw a decline with the rate contracting by 0.9ppts to 94.2%.
  • Notable demographic changes have taken place in Tokyo since the pandemic began, with the 23W population seeing a material decline. In contrast, western regions have seen a rise in their populations.

After a temporary rise in the previous quarter, rents have again declined across the 23W. Unsurprisingly, the demographic changes seen in Tokyo since the onset of the pandemic have dented the capital’s appeal, with areas on the outskirts being the prime beneficiaries of this change. With the end of the pandemic in sight, however, it remains to be seen if this will be long-lasting.

Savills Research & Consultancy
Map 1

GRAPH 3 | Mid-market Apartment Rents, Q1/2014 to Q2/2021