Savills

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Tokyo Residential Leasing Q1/2021

A mixed picture emerges

While subtle movement away from central areas has continued, some reversal of this trend has also been observed.

  • Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) now stand at JPY4,046 per sq m, showing a quarterly recovery with an increase of 1.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), despite seeing an annual decrease of 2.6% year-on-year (YoY).
  • Average mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W) have declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, and are currently at JPY4,749 per sq m, showing a decline of 3.6% YoY, amid a smaller quarterly decline of 0.6%.
  • In line with its decreasing average rents, the C5W premium has narrowed to 17.4%, whereas the West and Outer East submarkets posted notable growth.
  • At the ward level, Adachi in the Outer East, marked the strongest growth this quarter, posting a 7.2% QoQ gain. On an annual basis, Arakawa displayed the largest gain of 10.5% YoY.
  • In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band – which represent the majority of listings – have remained flat, while larger units saw some small corrections.
  • The average occupancy rate in the 23W has increased 0.2ppts to 96.1%. The C5W has begun to see recovery in occupancy rates, up 0.9ppts to 95.1% this quarter.
  • Mixed trends have appeared in the market: while there has been subtle movement away from central areas, some evidence also points to a reversal of this trend, especially in quality assets.

Average rents have improved over the quarter, although they have still seen an annual decline. Remote work is expected to continue into the upcoming fiscal year, and yet occupancy rates in the 23W have seen notable improvement from the last quarter. We expect a clearer view of the market direction once the dust settles after the moving season in spring.

Savills Research & Consultancy
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GRAPH 1 | Mid-market Apartment Rental Index, Q3/2008 to Q1/2021