And whilst it is true that 95% of decisions made since that time have indeed been positive, it is worth looking at the detail of the decisions taken and what we can learn about the direction of travel for this administration.

Twenty decisions have been issued by the secretary of state (SoS) between July and mid-December, these are across the call-in, recovered appeals and NSIPs regimes. Only one of these was refused – when the SoS sided with the Inspector to refuse the application for employment land at J20 of the M6, which they both agreed did not have the very special circumstances (VSC) required to justify development in the Green Belt.   

Of the remaining 19 decisions only two were not in agreement with the Inspector’s recommendation. The first was a much-publicised case of a large solar farm on the Suffolk and Cambridgeshire border published just eight days after the election, which had it been refused would have been a distinct reversal of the green credentials that the incoming government had been embracing during the election campaign. It therefore has acted as a clear marker for future large-scale solar schemes.   

The second example was an extension to an existing prison complex in Leyland which hinged on the harm to the highways network. Whilst the SoS agreed that, as proposed, the highway safety would be unacceptably compromised, they found that this could be overcome with additional evidence secured through an updated s106 agreement. This in turn allowed for the very special circumstances to be found for the release of land for development in the Green Belt.  

This leaves a total of 17 decisions, or 85%, all of which followed the advice of the Inspector’s recommendation for approval. So, there hasn’t been a significant shift to the SoS simply allowing everything before them but rather a small change in emphasis in a minority of cases – and the SoS has been in step with the Planning Inspectorate. As we see more examples of recommendations for refusal in 2025 it will be interesting to see if the SoS overturns more of these positively.

As a sense check, a review of the last 20 decisions taken before July, shows that the previous SoS overruled their Inspectorate in 40% of cases and refused 30% of applications. So, when compared to the most recent decisions there seems to be a shift toward a more positive outlook under the present administration – albeit that the sample sizes are both relatively small.   

One stark case that stands out and could be seen to be the bellwether case between the administrations is the M&S building on Oxford Street – recommended for approval by the same Inspector a year apart and turned over by the previous SoS whilst approved by the current SoS.  

The direction of travel seems likely to be that the SoS will continue to have a more positive outlook on planning balance – especially where low carbon energy generation is concerned. Inspectors might either consciously or perhaps subconsciously make recommendations where the planning balance tips to the side of a positive recommendation more often.     

The real change could be at the local level. Will we see local councillors realising that unnecessary and illogical refusals in the face of a growth-focused central government are futile, and just lead to higher costs, more delays and ultimately slower growth?