The risk of unintended consequences for housebuilding and the supply of development land

The Savills Blog

The risk of unintended consequences for housebuilding and the supply of development land

The residential land market is heading for significant change as the new government looks set to alter some of the ground rules.

An ambitious housebuilding target – 1.5 million homes in England over the next five years – is, of course, a major part of the story. 

The government also aspires to increase the amount of land value that is captured from development. According to the most recent developer contribution figures for England, in 2018/19 £7 billion was captured through CIL and Section 106. Our research suggests this was around half of the value uplift created by the development process, with the remainder split between the landowner and funding the complex process of master planning and enabling sites.

Land value capture

The government’s land value capture aspirations are particularly focused on land released from the green belt. In order to gain residential planning permission in the green belt, a developer would have to provide 50% affordable housing, improvements to local and national infrastructure, and improved publicly accessible green space.

This would be a significant shift for the land market and is a policy designed to reset landowner expectations; the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) consultation sets out a proposal for limiting benchmark land values for development sites at little more than 10 times agricultural value.

But whether or not this is compatible with the desire to boost housebuilding is unclear. Will it give landowners the incentive they need to engage in the promotion and local plan process?

Lessons from the past

Previous Labour government efforts to introduce a betterment levy or development land tax were strong disincentives to bringing land forward. And while landowners may be prepared to accept less in exchange for a shorter and more certain planning process, without sufficient returns from residential development it’s likely sites will either remain in their existing use or be sold for alternative uses such as logistics which may provide a better return.

We are in the very early stages of change and caution is required to avoid unintended consequences.

There could be potential to capture up to an additional £1 billion per year, but the challenge is to design mechanisms that ensure landowners believe bringing land forward for residential development is worth their while. Failure to do so risks disrupting the level of supply needed to ‘get Britain building again’.

 

Further information

Contact Emily William or Lydia McLaren

 

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