Capacity challenges in Scotland’s schools

According to the Scottish Government’s School Estates Statistics, the overall pupil roll in Scotland increased by 4% from around 668,000 in 2014 to just over 696,000 in 2023. Secondary school rolls have surged by 10% over the same period, while primary school rolls have remained stable. However, the overall school capacity has only grown by 2% during this time. Currently, the pupil-to-capacity ratio for all schools in Scotland stands at 77%. Secondary schools are particularly strained, with an 84% occupancy rate, whereas primaries are slightly less pressured at 73%.

Analysing the data from 2,337 schools in Scotland, our research shows a substantial drop in the number of primary schools that are operating at 90% and above capacity over the last decade. However, the number of secondary schools also in this predicament has increased dramatically by 74%, from 77 in September 2014 to 134 in the latest September 2023 pupil roll stats. That’s a staggering 37% of all secondary schools in Scotland.

School capacity levels within local authorities

East Renfrewshire and the City of Edinburgh were amongst the top five in terms of proportion of schools operating at 90% or more of their capacity, not only in the most recent stats but also 10 years ago.

At 52%, East Renfrewshire had the highest proportion of schools operating at 90% and above capacity, according to the September 2023 pupil roll. Interestingly, alongside Aberdeen City, East Renfrewshire experienced the largest increase in pupil numbers compared to the previous 2022 pupil roll, with a 4% rise.

East Dunbartonshire follows closely, with 41% of schools in the area operating at over 90% capacity. Whilst primary schools here have relatively more room, the secondary schools face a unique and tougher challenge as all of the total eight in this area are operating well beyond capacity, averaging 102%. 

Over the past decade, the three main cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen have always ranked in the top half of local authority areas with schools operating at 90% or more capacity. Secondary schools are the main contributors. The September 2023 pupil roll showed that 19 of the 23 schools in the City of Edinburgh are operating at 90% or more capacity, eight of the 11 in Aberdeen City, and 14 of the 30 in Glasgow City. Analysing the combined 64 secondary schools in the three cities, the average capacity was 92%.

Scotland's top schools are bursting at the seams

Buyers often consider the quality of local schools as a crucial factor when choosing where to live. Our analysis reveals that properties within the catchment areas of Scotland’s top 10 performing schools command significant premiums, with house prices in their catchment areas 70% higher than the Scotland average.

The premiums in areas around Bearsden Academy, Boroughmuir and Mearns Castle High Schools are even higher, with average house prices in their catchment reaching over £400,000. The Boclair Academy, Douglas Academy, Jordanhill, Linlithgow Academy, Woodfarm High School and St Ninian’s High School catchments are all averaging between £300,000 and £400,000. Williamwood High School is the only area averaging at just under £300,000. 

However, the school capacity at six of them (Bearsden Academy, Boroughmuir High School, Douglas Academy, Boclair Academy, Linlithgow Academy and St Ninian’s High School) is over 100%, whilst Mearns Castle High School and Williamwood High School are at 95% and 97% respectively. 

New build developments and capacity issues

In areas where new build developments have thrived over the years, primary schools are grappling with capacity pressures. However, the more pressing issue lies within secondary schools. This imbalance creates a challenge: while primary schools may have adequate capacity, secondary schools are struggling to accommodate a growing number of pupils, as families move into new developments.

Our analysis, using Experian data, reveals that the predominant demographic purchasing new build properties includes ‘Domestic Success’ and ‘Aspiring Homemakers’, both of which are characterised by families with children. 

Furthermore, our data indicates that across 10 of the largest housebuilders there are nearly 200 live new build developments in Scotland offering nearly 2,000 properties currently for sale. Typically, these developments are aimed at families seeking three, four, and five bedroom homes.

With pupil enrolment continuing to rise without a corresponding rise in school capacity, this imbalance will increasingly impact the delivery of new build developments. Without additional spaces or new schools, the strain on secondary school placements is likely to intensify as ultimately, families still need modern and energy efficient homes to live in.

Independent schools and impact on the public school sector

It's clear that high-quality education has consistently been a major factor influencing the Scottish housing market. With the upcoming introduction of VAT on private school fees, we could see a surge in demand for top-performing state schools in Scotland. Most of Scotland’s independent schools are located in areas where state school capacity is already stretched.

To illustrate this, the following map shows the locations of independent schools in Scotland's Central Belt alongside schools currently operating at 90% or more capacity.

Just as I focused my parental eye on school capacity, home buyers are also likely to exercise caution on this critical issue. 

Further information

Contact Claire Wright