The farmland market in 2022 so far has been a story of delay and disruption, but with some notable silver linings to the market outlook.

Delay

Comparing supply in the first quarter of 2022 with 2021 shows another slow start to the year – supply in Great Britain is down 10 per cent year on year, and 16 per cent less than the 10-year average. However, with just shy of 12,800 acres launched in Q1 of this year, large portfolios can skew the statistics on a regional level; in the East of England, there has been a 3.95 per cent year-on-year increase in publicly marketed farmland.

The lack of farmland stock in 2021 meant that assets sold well, with a number of transactions that were agreed in 2021 working through to completion in the first quarter of 2022. Anecdotally, the process of legally completing a farmland sale is taking longer than normal; our data suggests that the average time from launch to exchange is around 420 days due to the ever-increasing complexity of transactions.

Those considering a sale should strive to be well prepared, have all the necessary paperwork together and choose their advisors wisely. Purchasers need to be patient.

Disruption

Hard on the heels of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine has compounded existing inflationary pressures, with prices for animal feed, electricity and fertiliser soaring. This has had a particular impact on the livestock sector, but some arable profit margins have improved due to the increased output prices for crops. While achieving better margins depends on the timing of output sales and purchases and, importantly, the length of the disruption, the market shift could protect farm businesses from another fall in basic payment scheme support this year.

Looking back at historic global shocks, the farmland market demonstrates resilience often supported by a temporary reduction in supply. But it is the impact on the commodity market that has the biggest impact on values, so many will be keeping a watchful eye on how future farmland values in GB are affected.

Farmland values 1995-2021

2022 has so far confirmed the historic trend of inflationary growth in land values. Our research shows that values have climbed again, albeit more slowly than last quarter, with average GB land worth 0.9 per cent more than in December 2021. Once again, it is grassland leading that growth, driven by amenity and natural capital factors, with the biggest gains seen for ‘poor livestock’ land and grade 3 livestock land.

Market outlook

Looking forward, 2022 brings with it the launch of the Lump Sum Exit Scheme (LSES) in England. Defra provided more details of the scheme in February, including that applications will open in April and close in September this year, although farmers can withdraw their application any time before their lump sum payment is made. 

The arrival of the scheme will impact how land is brought to the market this year, with farmers who are leaving the industry evaluating whether it is best to use the scheme, therefore marketing the land without the entitlements. This would leave the buyer to either replace them, negotiate a lower purchase price for the land ex-entitlements or potentially agree an apportionment of the LSES payment.

Our data is pointing to strong demand, with 39 per cent more applicants registered on our database in the first three months of 2022 than 2020. These new applicants, who are interested in farms over 50 acres, have registered over £560 million to spend.

Given the range of assets coming to the market this year, it will be an interesting test of the appetite for more traditional farming investments, away from the natural capital investment narrative of the last few years. If supply increases as a result of exit schemes or more likely due to policy change fatigue or concerns over production risk, 2022 looks set to be a busy year for the farmland market.

Further information

Contact Emily Norton or Alex Lawson

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