Given everything we have been told about Europe’s ageing demographic, some recent figures from Oxford Economics on the numbers of young people in the region make interesting reading.
Data published by the global forecaster shows that while the overall number of young people (classified as those aged between 20 and 29 years old) in Europe has been declining gradually for more than a decade, those declines have, in fact, started to stabilise in the major European student cities since 2017. What is more, from next year, this upward trend is expected to increase.
The timing of this shift is uneven across cities. Over the next five years, the most significant growth of the young population is expected in Barcelona (+2.2 per cent), Madrid (+1.9 per cent), Dublin (+1.4 per cent), Milano (+1 per cent) and Malaga (+1 per cent).
If we layer our own figures on top of the Oxford Economics’ findings, we can expect a rapid growth in student numbers and demand for student housing in the next five years across all larger European university hubs – especially major Spanish and Italian cities.
It also leads to the conclusion that in places where the provision of purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) compared to the student population is low, demand will eventually place upward pressure on rental levels.
Provision rates of PBSA are currently below 10 per cent in Malaga, (1.19 per cent), Milan (2.40 per cent), Valencia (2.40 per cent), Rome (5.30per cent), Cologne (7.09 per cent), Seville (7.16 per cent), Madrid (7.24 per cent) and Barcelona (7.39 per cent).
Savills data also shows that student numbers have already increased significantly last year in most European countries.
Across the eight countries we surveyed -– Czech Republic, Italy, Netherlands, France, Germany, Spain, Poland and Denmark – student numbers increased by an average 2.4 per cent compared with the previous academic year (pre-Covid). Meanwhile it decreased by -2.5 per cent between 2018-19 and 2019-20.
Paradoxically, part of this increase is linked to the pandemic. One reason is because in some countries, the Baccalaureate success rate was generally higher last year than traditionally. Given the difficulty of attending classes and taking exams, some ministries of education decided to lower the grade which grants access to universities.
Secondly, scarce job opportunities, especially among the young, did not provide the usual alternative to education. Finally, the sabbatical option clearly lost its appeal in times of travel restrictions.
With international student mobility particularly impacted by the pandemic, the real surprise comes from foreign applications. In several countries, the number of international students increased last year: namely, in the Czech Republic (+8.1 per cent), Italy (+5.5 per cent), Poland (+3 per cent) and Germany (+1.1 per cent).
Perhaps this is further evidence of the return of migration, as outlined by our latest Global Living (Part 2) report which forecasts a speedy return of international and domestic migration and a return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. Operational residential product will be in greater demand than ever before, and perhaps that demand will focus on locations that we never previously expected.
Further information
Spotlight: Global Living (Part 2) – 2021
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