Over the past five years, international arrivals to EU tourist accommodation, including hotels, has grown from 324.4 million in February 2014 to 419.8 million in June 2019, on a rolling 12-month basis according to Eurostat data. Despite a slowdown in UK visits to the EU since the 2016 referendum, there are a number of key factors continuing to drive overseas arrivals across Europe.

Strong dollar

Arrivals from the US have grown significantly as the value of the dollar has increased over the last year against both the euro and pound. According to Tourism Economics, the US contributed to an 11 per cent share of growth in European tourism during the first few months of 2019, the highest share of any non-EU country. This influx of US visitors is expected to increase further, with Tourism Economics forecasting a 22.3 per cent growth between 2018 and 2023.

This is helping to maintain strong operational performance in some tourism markets. As of July 2019, year-to-date arrivals in Spain from the US are up 26.9 per cent compared with last year, in line with significant revenue-per-available-room (RevPAR) growth in Madrid over the same period. Greece and Italy have experienced similar trends, supporting the 7.7 per cent year-on-year RevPAR growth in July for southern Europe recorded by STR.

Chinese travellers

Since 2001, Chinese outbound trips have grown 1,326 per cent to total 149.7 million in 2018 according to COTRI, more than doubling the number of UK outbound trips (approximately 71.8 million). Approximately 9 per cent of Chinese citizens, or 120 million people, possess a passport, compared with around 76 per cent of Britons, so the further growth potential is huge. Many European airports are increasing the number of direct flights from China with, for example, Heathrow recently launching Europe’s first direct connection to Zhengzhou, operated by China Southern Airlines.

Conscious travellers

While both US and Chinese visitor numbers to Europe are growing, there is another trend emerging within Europe: the rise of the conscious traveller. Greater consumer awareness around environmental issues, particularly the carbon footprint associated with air travel, is leading some to opt for less carbon-intensive travel alternatives. In Sweden, the 'flight-shaming' movement resulted in airport passenger numbers declining by 4 per cent year-on-year in July 2019, according to Swedavia.

Rail companies, in particular, are capitalising on this trend. German rail, Deutsche Bahn, saw revenue rise 24 per cent following a social media campaign titled 'No Need to Fly – Around the World in Germany', comparing well-known global landmarks with German lookalikes. This has helped boost domestic travel across Germany, increasing 3.4 per cent on average per annum over the last five years.

We expect conscious travellers to boost inter-country travel across Europe. New high-speed rail routes connecting major European cities have significantly increased the appeal of rail travel. The London-Amsterdam Eurostar route launched additional daily services in June 2019 due to such high demand.

Rail travel is increasingly appealing to tourists seeking unique experiences. Chinese tourists are expected to be a key driver of European rail usage with Eurail Group forecasting a 14 per cent uptick in Chinese tourists purchasing Eurail passes in 2019. As a result of these trends, the tourism sector in Europe continues to look very healthy indeed.

Further information

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