Fifteen years ago I joined Savills to set up a research team dedicated to helping clients, from housebuilders to banks, understand the dynamics of Scottish property.  

Back then the market was stable and relatively evenly distributed. Today it’s more polarised – some areas are flying while others struggle. Housing was a hot topic – it still is, of course, but nowadays the chances are politics and taxation will creep into the conversation first.

Scotland has had its fair share of uncertainty and in many ways is unfazed by it all, though it has certainly kept us researchers busy. We look to the overall economy and key indicators such as Gross Domestic Product and mortgage lending to help inform our forecasts, following four principles that have served me well over the years:

What’s going on?

This is the first principle that most researchers apply. It can be a simple function, such as finding out house price growth in a certain location. There is now a vast amount of tech, from sophisticated mapping to official indices, that can help the modern researcher determine the state of the market.

Why is that happening?

The next level is finding out why the market is behaving in certain ways.

Looking at movement in different price bands can explain house price changes. But reading about places, visiting them and talking to estate agents that are active in these areas deepens our understanding.

Nothing beats heading out of the office to a neighbourhood, town or village, walking around the streets and calling into the local shops to get a real feel for what’s going on.

In terms of residential development, it is essential for researchers to visit sites and provide a critical analysis.  It’s one way of finding out why the same house type by the same builder is priced differently within the same county.

What’s going to happen next?

So, we’ve learnt what’s going on in the market and why it’s behaving in a certain way. But our clients want to know what’s going to happen next. Most discussions on market outlook typically involve house price forecasts and their underlying reasons. However, an awareness of future sites and new infrastructure can also give us an indication of the impact on values and activity levels.

So what?

Making the first three principles relevant is the final and most important principle to consider. Why are you telling me all this?  As your client, what action should I undertake? Do you want me to buy or sell or develop or invest or lend? Where should I be investing? Research can carry immense weight if we provide conclusions, recommendations, options and action points, based on the first three principles.

Voices of Experience

'It's a matter of principles' is part of Voices of Experience, a series of blogs inspired by the new Savills marketing campaign. In this series some of our most experienced agents share what they’ve learned about the property market over the decades.