Over the next 30 years there are likely to be some significant changes in land use across the UK that will undoubtedly have ramifications on the amount of land in agricultural production, how farmland is occupied and its capital and rental values.

We know there will be opportunities for farmers and landowners linked to the growing value tied into ‘natural capital’. These have the potential to offer a broader range of income sources than are currently available from the public purse, including from external private investment.

Based on one set of predictions for future land use, we have mapped out how much of the UK land area might be needed for agricultural production in 2050 and identified some key alternative uses for the area released (see graphic, below).

The main driver is clear – agriculture is one of the largest Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emitters at 11 per cent of the UK’s overall figure in 2016 as reported by the Committee on Climate Change (see publications).

According to the CCC the agricultural production area could shrink by 30 per cent by 2050 as the industry adapts to making maximum use of innovation and technology, the population adopts high levels of change in behaviour towards healthy eating guidelines, and a willingness to try novel food sources and significantly reduce waste.

Land needed for agricultural production in 2050 and areas that might be released from current land use

So what are the key potential uses for the released land?

• Trees, including, commercial forestry, hedgerows and agroforestry
  To meet GHG capture targets up to 1.5 million hectares of new woodland would be needed to store carbon by 2050. In addition, to help mitigate GHG emissions and increase biodiversity while maintaining food production there is likely to be an increased area of agroforestry and hedgerows.
  
  
• Environmental adaption, including reclaiming peatland
  In 2017, 6.8 million hectares or 27 per cent of the UK land area were under environmental designations, including National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. These are under review and are likely to expand. Peatlands account for around 12% of the UK land area, but only around a quarter is in a near-natural or re-wetted state. Restoration and rewetting of degraded peatland currently under agricultural and forest land use will make a significant contribution towards the 2050 emission targets.
  
  
• Energy
  Significant planting of second generation biomass energy crops such as short rotation coppice and forestry could mean up to 1.2 million hectares for bioenergy crops by 2050. The area occupied by renewable energy infrastructure – especially ground mounted solar and feedstock for AD plants – is likely to increase.
  
  
• Housing and infrastructure
  By 2050, 0.3 million hectares might be required for housing and infrastructure. This equates to 2.7 per cent of UK land use and increases the current ‘built–on’ area by 21 per cent.

Further information

Read more: Spotlight: The Farmland Market