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5 ways to assess an area's resilience to a hard Brexit

With the possibility of a hard Brexit, here's a quick way of assessing how exposed or resilient a location in the UK may be to the consequences.

1. How diverse is the local economy?

While most business sectors will see a slowdown in activity if uncertainty rises around a hard Brexit, locations that have a more diverse industrial structure will be more resilient.

2. Is the area over or under-dependent on higher value-added industries?

Higher value-added industries such as professional services and information and communications tend to be quicker to bounce back from internal or external shocks. A location that is strong in these industries will recover faster from a hard Brexit.

3. How dependent are the location’s industries on migrant labour?

Given that one of the key red lines around Brexit is immigration it is likely that any Brexit outcome will result in lower levels of migration from the EU. In some UK regions as much as 15 per cent of the workforce is from the EU and industries such as agriculture and tourism are particularly dependent on migration. Lower migration will limit population growth, and affect operators’ margins.

4. How much does the local economy depend on exports to the EU?

As much as 15 per cent of some region’s output comes from exports to the EU. While this will not stop, the costs of exporting will rise and this will affect the medium-term profitability of exporting businesses. If these costs go up too much then companies may consider relocation to a market within the EU. Another consideration is the nationality of companies in that region, with up to 1 per cent of employment in some regions related to Foreign Direct Investment from the EU.

5. How dependent is the region on structural funds from the EU?

While the government has guaranteed subsidies for farmers at the current EU level until 2022, this is not the only industry that depends to some degree on EU subsidy. Funding from the European Regional Development Fund and European Social Fund will also cease on the UK’s exit from the EU and this will affect some regions more than others if the UK government does not step in and match the current funding regimes.

 

Further information

Read more: What Brexit means for European financial centres

 

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