New Local Plan targets are now closely linked to demographic projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. The standard calculation of a minimum housing need for each local authority was brought in with the new NPPF at the end of July. That calculation depends on household projections, which in turn depend on population projections.

Population projections are revised every two years. The latest national projection was released in October 2017, based on the 2016 estimates of population. It contained a few surprises; ones that the housing industry will need to pay much more attention to in future.

The biggest surprise was the much gloomier outlook for ‘natural change’, that is, births and deaths. The long-term completed family size has been revised down across Great Britain by 0.05 children per woman since the 2014-based projections to 1.85 in England & Wales and 1.65 in Scotland. In Northern Ireland it remained at 2.00 children per woman.

Completed family sizes since 1950

Not only are we now expecting fewer births, but we’re expecting people to die sooner too.  In 2014, women born in 2020 were expected to live 84.2 years – now it’s 83.6 years. Male life expectancy has seen a similar fall.

Life expectancy since 1990

Added to the natural change numbers is a small reduction in the expectation for net international migration, down from 170,000 people per year to 150,000. The long-term international migration trend is based on a 25-year average, which now starts in 1992.

All of this adds up to a much lower growth projection for the UK population, which is summarised in the chart below. Population increase is now expected to be 26 per cent lower in 2030 than two years ago.

The population was expected to have reached 71 million by the end of 2030 and to have grown by 364,000 people that year.  Now, the population in 2030 is expected to be nearly 1 million less, at 70 million and to have grown by 269,000 during the year.

Projected population growth

Assuming all of this is right, it clearly has implications for the planning of housing provision. If only because, alongside housing affordability, it is now hardwired into the local plan making process. But it is crucial to understand how these population projections will be turned into household projections, and how these will vary locally. That will be the subject of a future blog.

Read the other blogs in this series: 

Why population projections are so important in house planning

Can we rely on local population projections?

Further information

Contact Savills Research or read more on housing shortage