The Savills Blog

Scotland's mainstream property market set to grow in 2015

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Gentle economic recovery, falling unemployment and improving mortgage market conditions are helping to underpin the mainstream residential property sector* in Scotland. The market cooled in the last quarter of 2014, following the introduction of the nationwide Mortgage Market Review. There was also slowdown in deals in the immediate run-up to the Independence Referendum in September. But the latest figures show a 12 per cent annual rise in residential transactions, up from 84,065 in 2013 to 93,875 in 2014 - the busiest market since 2008.

Around two-thirds of transactions in Scotland are mortgage dependent and the 18 per cent annual increase in Scottish lending has boosted the mainstream market. The government’s Help to Buy schemes assisted in 6,629 sales across Scotland between October 2013 and September 2014, providing much needed support to the new build and first-time buyer market.

The core locations of Aberdeen, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire have led the Scottish residential property market for the last 10 years and continue to do so. However, 2014 will be best remembered as the year when market strength spilled out from the hubs into secondary and commuter locations. Moray saw an annual increase in transactions of 24 per cent last year; West Lothian 22 per cent and South Lanarkshire 20 per cent, all helped by attainable house prices and new build developments.

There are early signs that market conditions in the mainstream housing market are steadying. A slight monthly rise in mortgage approvals across the UK during December, the recent stamp duty reforms, and the initial effects of lower oil prices on UK inflation, should help stabilise activity levels.

But it's the establishment of three important solid foundations - favourable Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) rates for the majority of buyers; a dissipation of interest rate fears in the short term; and the continuation of gradual economic growth - that should ensure that 2015 is a year for growth in the mainstream Scottish residential property market.

*Savills identifies the mainstream market as residential sales from £20,000 to £1 million. This is distinct from the prime market which refers to second hand sales at £400,000 or above.

 

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