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Prime London’s £5 million-plus market up on pre-pandemic despite recent slowdown
London’s £5 million-plus residential market remains stronger than before the pandemic, despite slowing from the highs of the past few years. A total of 89 £5 million-plus second hand and new build properties changed hands across the capital in Q1 2024, with a total value of £918 million. This means volumes are up by 44% on the 62 sales recorded in Q1 2019, despite falling by -20% compared to Q1 2023.
On a rolling annual basis, there were 504 £5 million-plus sales in the year to Q1 2024: 352 at £5–10 million and 152 above £10 million. New buyer registrations across central London for April (up 44% compared to pre-pandemic levels) suggest that momentum across this part of the market is improving as we enter the typically busier period.
What are the trends behind the data
Old-established prime central London postcodes continue to dominate sales at this price point as the global wealthy still see London as a desirable place to live.
The highest proportion of sales took place in Mayfair (15%), overtaking Chelsea for the number one spot for the first time since 2020. The traditional prime hotspots of Mayfair, Belgravia, Chelsea and Kensington account for more than half (52%) of sales at this price point.
However, there has been a growing number of domestic buyers active in this market so far this year and this has led to an uptick in house sales, particularly in markets such as Hampstead, St John’s Wood and Kensington. Houses accounted for 61% of £5 million-plus transactions in Q1 2024, the highest proportion since the pandemic ‘race for space’ in Q1 2021.
Despite an impending general election, the short odds on a change in government means that political change is already largely priced into the market. Values across prime central London remained broadly flat (0.1%) in Q1 2024, representing the first positive quarterly price movement since mid-2022.
This leaves prices down by a total of just -1.2% since the mini-budget in September 2022. Greater use of cash and equity means this part of the market has remained more resilient to higher interest rates, though it is price sensitive.