That same affordability issue will still weigh on growth in 2024. While we expect mortgage rates to come down as margins begin to compress, they will still be high by recent standards and put pressure on growth in the first half of 2024, particularly in the areas where affordability is most stretched. Once the base rate begins to come down in the second half of that year, we expect to see growth return to the market with the strongest part of the recovery in 2026. We envisage it will be seen earlier and more strongly in the more affordable markets of the North.

Before the pandemic and its economic disruption, our analysis suggests that - from a geographical perspective at least - we were in the late stages of a typical housing market cycle. As the housing markets stabilise in the second half of this 5-year window, we expect these cyclical factors to continue to take precedence over the regional distribution of economic growth. However, we’re forecasting that regional house price growth will converge around the UK average at the end of our forecast period, raising the prospect that London will again be in a position to deliver the strongest house price growth as we enter the next phase of the market cycle from 2027 onwards.