Regional variation in delivery against housing need
All regions saw housing delivery rise in the year to Q2 2021, as completions matched 2019 levels. Delivery met housing need (according to the Standard Method) across the midlands and the north of England, but fell short in the south.
The shortfall is unlikely to be resolved soon. We estimate the number of consents issued across the south (excluding London) in the year to June 2021 was 5% lower than the number of homes completed. In the South East consents were 13% lower than completions, after 40% fewer consents were issued in 2020 compared to the previous two years, a greater drop than in any other region.
Were the Housing Delivery Test run for the three years to Q2 2021, we would expect 71% of local authorities to pass. The pass rate has been boosted by recent Government adjustments to the 2021 HDT in order to reflect disruption from Covid.
With housing delivery lower since May, and relatively low levels of consents and starts, we expect that a greater number of local authorities will fail to meet their housing delivery requirements in future iterations of the Housing Delivery Test.