Text: Matti Schenk

The market for student housing has expanded in recent years. Never have there been so many students in the thirty largest university cities and never have private providers offered so many beds. Here, we take a look at the current and planned supply. We also consider the size of the investable stock and which cities have the greatest potential for investment. Lastly, we analyse provision rates in detail.

Slower growth in the private supply
A glance at the growth of the private supply in the student apartment market in recent years shows only one direction: upwards! In the thirty largest German university cities (measured by student numbers), private providers have completed more than 45,000 beds since 2010, more than quadrupling their supply (see Graph below). By mid-2019, private providers had more than 51,500 beds, accounting for more than a quarter (27%) of the overall supply. A further 21,800 private beds are expected to be completed by the end of 2022 (as of mid-2019). During the same period, non-profit providers and public bodies will probably only complete around 11,000 beds, which is likely to mean an increase in the market share of private providers to a third.

The new-build activity of private providers reached new record levels in 2017 and 2018, with a total of approximately 14,600 new beds coming to the market in these two years alone. In 2020, more than 8,700 beds are scheduled for completion. However, the corresponding figures for the following years are significantly lower. Consequently, the market is soon likely to enter a phase of slower growth.

In some cities, the new-build pipeline is larger than the existing stock
When looking at the regional distribution of this supply, it is clear that private providers have predominantly focused on the largest university cities to date. Their stock in Berlin and Munich alone totals 12,600 beds, accounting for a quarter of the private supply in the top 30 cities (see Graph below).

While construction activity in Berlin remains buoyant, momentum in Munich is declining. The largest pipelines after Berlin can be found in the cities of Hamburg, Aachen and Dortmund, where a further 5,900 beds are planned by the end of 2022. Hamburg stands out from this pack with almost 2,750 new beds. If the pipeline is compared with the existing private stock, the supply will increase the most in Dortmund, Düsseldorf and Hanover. The high level of new-build activity in cities such as Aachen, Dortmund and Hanover demonstrates that private providers are now becoming increasingly involved outside of the major cities. However, with more than 50,000 students in some of these cities, these are also key locations in the German university landscape.

No shift to poorer locations despite the shortage of sites
In the major cities and most other top 30 university cities, however, investors are likely to be faced with difficulty in acquiring suitable development sites. Since many appropriate sites are also attractive to developers of condominiums, competition among bidders for the sites is correspondingly intensive. However, there is no indication of a shift to poorer micro-locations. While around 12% of beds in existing stock are in residential locations of below-average attractiveness (measured by the average asking rent compared with the city average), this is expected to compare with only around 8% of beds under construction and in planning (see Graph below). The proportion of beds in significantly above-average locations is even likely to increase. Compared with the existing stock, the future supply is particularly being developed more frequently in locations of average quality.

What is being built? Smaller apartments in larger properties
New-build student accommodation remains almost exclusively comprised of fully-furnished one-bedroom apartments. Of all the private stock under construction and in planning, 92% of places are expected to be one-bedroom apartments. Among the existing stock, one-bedroom apartments account for approximately two thirds of the private supply. Since 2016, apartments have become smaller as an overall trend. The average size of new-build apartments between 2016 and 2019 declined by almost 18% to 22.2 sq m. There has been no clearly observable trend with regard to the size of properties over the last five years. However, the figures suggest that the average property size will increase going forward. While student housing properties completed over the last five years comprised an average of around 185 apartments, properties under construction and in planning are expected to contain an average of 223 apartments.

Little activity in the rental segment below 450 euros
To date, the stock of private providers has been approximately equally divided between places at all-inclusive rents of more than 500 euros per month per bed and those costing no more than 500 euros. Around a quarter (26%) of the stock costs more than 600 euros per month (see Graph below).

We estimate that around two thirds of beds under construction and in planning will be offered at all-inclusive rents of more than 500 euros per month. Only 19% of planned beds are expected to cost 450 euros or less. We expect places with relatively low all-inclusive rents to be primarily completed in cities such as Bochum and Dortmund, where achievable rents are lower than in other cities owing to local market conditions. This price segment will also include subsidised beds, such as those planned under the SMARTments student brand. In view of the rising site and construction costs, it appears unlikely that there will be a larger proportion of the private supply in the lower price segments going forward.

Market share of operators is stagnating but likely to increase
The provider structure in the student housing market is relatively strongly fragmented. In mid-2019, operator-managed properties accounted for approximately 38% of all private beds, or around 19,800 beds (see Graph below). The remaining beds are attributable to properties managed without an operator. While the operators active nationwide (e.g. Youniq, THE FIZZ, Uninest, SMARTments student and Staytoo) have particularly increased their market shares since 2011, their share of the private stock has not risen any further since 2017.

The ten largest operators have a combined existing stock of approximately 13,700 beds in the top 30 cities. The five largest operators are Corestate with its Youniq brand, GSA with its Uninest brand, International Campus with its THE FIZZ brand, FDS gemeinnützige Stiftung with its SMARTments student brand and Campus Viva operating under its own name. These have around 9,200 beds in existing stock combined, representing 18% of the private supply. This figure, too, illustrates the fragmentation of the supply. By way of comparison, in Great Britain, the five largest operators account for more than 52% of the overall stock (see also UK Operational Real Estate – The Sky`s The Limit?).

In terms of accommodation under construction and in planning, operators are expected to account for 43% of places, or approximately 9,360 beds. However, acquisitions by investors with their own operator platform could drive this percentage higher. It appears likely, therefore, that operators will gain further market share over the next three years.

Market volume of almost nine billion euros but not everything is accessible
The relatively strong fragmentation of the provider structure means that investors in Germany rarely have the opportunity to acquire high-value portfolios or a share of a platform. Hence, larger property portfolios will likely have to be accumulated through a variety of individual transactions. To estimate how much capital can be invested in student housing, we have taken a closer look at the size and structure of the investable stock.

We estimate that all private student housing properties, including both existing properties and those under construction and in planning, in the top 30 cities have a current market volume of approximately €8.7bn, with the existing stock having a value of approximately €5.9bn. Approximately €2.1bn of this is attributable to properties in part-ownership (see Graph below), which are generally excluded from being acquired by institutional investors.

The volume of properties in full-ownership totals around €3.6bn, of which 57% is attributable to properties with an operator. The average volume per place is 41% higher in operator-managed properties than in properties with no operator. This is attributable, on the one hand, to the fact that operators concentrate on the large and normally expensive university cities and, on the other hand, to the better location quality of their properties. Some 45% of existing operator-managed properties are situated in residential locations of above-average attractiveness compared with only around 31% of properties without an operator (both figures relate to properties in full-ownership only).

Properties under construction and in planning are likely to have a total volume of approximately €2.8bn. The majority of these properties are likely to be intended for outright sale, taking the market volume relevant for institutional investors to an estimated €6.4bn.

Berlin and Hamburg offer institutional investors the largest market volume
The market volume is even more strongly concentrated in a few cities than the number of beds. Berlin and Hamburg offer by far the largest market volumes for institutional investors. Existing properties in these cities have an estimated combined market volume of €1.05bn. Properties under construction and in planning are expected to have a volume of approximately €1.04bn. Hence, the two largest German cities are responsible for around a third of the market volume relevant for institutional investors across all top 30 cities (see Graph below).

In Frankfurt am Main, the investable market is likely to total around €570m. This is followed by Munich, Cologne, Mainz, Aachen and Darmstadt, where volumes range from €290m to €370m. While Munich currently has the largest private stock with more than 6,300 beds, the market relevant for institutional investors is relatively small since 84% of all beds are attributable to properties in part-ownership. Only Regensburg exceeds this figure with 93%. With regard to properties under construction and in planning in Munich, we assume that the majority of these will also be sold in part-ownership.

Few high-value properties but many lower-value assets
The investable market is not only concentrated on a small number of cities but also on relatively few properties. There are only around 30 private properties with a volume of at least €50m. However, these account for around a third of the volume (see Graph below). At the same time, there are around 115 properties with a volume of less than €10m. Existing properties in full ownership and properties in the pipeline have a median volume of €14.2m, with the range extending from the low single-digit millions to more than €120m.

Some properties appropriate for institutional investors are already held by end investors. The ten largest owners of existing properties in the top 30 cities account for a total of 14,600 beds. The largest owners include GSA, Catella, Corestate, a joint venture between Allianz and CBRE Global Investors and a joint venture between TPG Real Estate Partners and Round Hill Capital. We have been able to identify a total of 35 owners with a portfolio of existing property comprising at least 200 beds. Only seven investors have been able to build a portfolio of at least 1,000 beds to date to our knowledge.

Of the beds under construction and in planning, around 6,900 beds are in the hands of end investors. Prominent examples include Base Camp, which develops properties for its own funds, and Commerz Real. Both of these players are owners of a four-figure number of beds under construction and in planning. End investors that have already secured a portion of the pipeline via forward transactions include Corestate, Axa Investment Managers, Catella, Patrizia, Mondial, Union Investment, KanAM Grund and DWS. The selection of players underlines that the niche segment of student housing has undergone institutionalisation and is attracting the interest of many large institutional investors.

Overall, student housing in the German real estate investment market has changed hands for a total of around €2.94bn over the last ten years. Approximately €2.49bn of this, or 85% of the volume, is attributable to properties in the top 30 cities.

The supply continues to grow but what about demand?
The significant interest of institutional investors is likely to originate not only from the growth in the investable stock but also from the attractive fundamental data from an owner's perspective. While the private supply in the top 30 university cities has grown by around 45,000 beds over the last ten years, the number of students has risen by almost 406,000 during the same period. Hence, demand for student housing is likely to be higher than ever. In the 2018/19 winter term, there were around 1.6 million students in the thirty cities, which was 0.8% more than in the previous year. However, in the preceding five years, annual growth averaged just 2.5% (see Graph below).

The growth is being driven almost exclusively by foreign students. While the number of German students is now stagnating (+0.1% or 904 students compared with the 2017/18 winter term), the number of foreign students has continued to rise (+4.9% or 11,165 students). Over the coming years, the trend for German students is likely to shift from stagnation to decline. Since this effect will probably only be partially offset by the increase in foreign students, we expect the growth in student numbers to cease over the coming years.

However, there are clear differences between the university cities in terms of growth in student numbers. While student numbers in Bonn, Düsseldorf and Hanover rose once again year on year, figures in Dortmund, Erlangen, Freiburg, Heidelberg and Karlsruhe have already started to decline (see Table below).

Where are the lowest provision rates?
Although growth in student numbers is slowing and the supply is increasing, the average provision rate across the top 30 cities will only rise modestly in the medium term. If the stock of all providers of student accommodation, i.e. private, non-profit and other providers, is compared with current student numbers, the provision rate in the top 30 cities currently stands at 11.9%. Following completion of the pipeline and assuming a constant number of students, this is likely to increase to 14% going forward. The highest provision rates in the medium term will be found in Heidelberg (23%), Mainz (21%) and Stuttgart (21%) (see Graph below). Conversely, the supply rate is likely to remain lowest in Kassel (6%), Düsseldorf (approx. 8%) and Cologne (approx. 8%).

For most private providers, however, only a portion of students represent potential tenants. More than two third of existing and planned beds will be offered at all-inclusive rents of at least 450 euros per month. According to the results of the 21st social survey, students spent an average of 35% of their income on housing costs. On the assumption that students are quite willing to spend a higher proportion of their income on housing, or are forced to do so owing to the shortage of apartments, students with a monthly income of at least 1,000 euros are likely to be the core target group of private providers. The proportion of students with such an income varies strongly by region and has been estimated by us for each of the top 30 university cities using the results of the last social survey and local income levels. On average, around a third of students probably have this level of income across the top 30 cities. If this number of students is compared with existing and planned beds in the price segment from 450 euros, the average calculated provision rate across the top 30 cities is likely to stand at approximately 11% in the medium term. As illustrated by Graph 10, we assume that the provision in the price segment from 450 euros will increase to at least 20% in three cities. Leipzig, Mainz and Dresden show a relatively large provision competing for the relevant students. In Freiburg and Heidelberg, too, the provision rate will rise to a relatively high level of almost 20%.

In 14 cities, on the other hand, the estimated provision rate will be less than 10% even after completion of the pipeline. These include cities with relatively low rental levels in the traditional apartment market, such as Bochum and Bielefeld. Consequently, it is easier for students in these cities to find an affordable apartment than in other university cities. As a result, private providers are likely to have difficulties in achieving all-inclusive rents of 450 euros or higher. However, the 14 cities also include Bonn, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Münster and Stuttgart. These cities are likely to have an above-average number of students with incomes above 1,000 euros and also have strained apartment markets. At first glance, therefore, the supply shortage in these cities appears relatively large.