SUMMARY

The average UK house price is unchanged over the last three months, according to Nationwide. Values increased 0.2% in October, leaving them 0.4% higher than at the same time last year. Although flat at a national level, growth remains strong in Wales and Scotland, while London, and increasingly the South East, are seeing price falls.

Despite fairly stable house prices, surveyors reported a sharp fall in activity levels in the September RICS Survey. They reported the same drop in confidence in the spring, but transaction numbers have actually held firm. Weakened surveyor confidence appears to have been in anticipation of the October Brexit deadline, now pushed back to 31st January. Earlier this year we saw a bounce back in confidence after the Brexit extension from March to October. But it seems likely that any similar boost will be delayed until after the General Election in December, assuming this provides a clear outcome and therefore greater clarity.

Surveyors have been more optimistic about house prices, with approximately equal numbers reporting rises and falls. This reflects the diversity of price growth at a local level, shown in the maps below. House prices continue to be supported by low mortgage rates. The interest rate on an average two year fixed rate mortgage has been stable at around 1.7% since early 2018, and the average five year fixed rate has now fallen below 2%.