SUMMARY

The number of new homes built in England rose to 246,159 in the year to Q2 2019, a 9% increase on the previous year, accordingto Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data. But the sustained rise in housing delivery looks likely to slow over the next fewquarters. Although completions rose, the number of housing starts fell in the year to Q1 2019, leaving fewer homes underconstruction. Delivery increased across all regions compared with Q2 2018, with the biggest increase in the North West.

Our projection for a hypothetical Q2 2019 Housing Delivery Test (HDT) shows that just 63% of local authorities would pass,delivering over 95% of their targets in the three years to Q2 2019. Of the remaining local authorities, nine would face thepresumption in favour of sustainable development after delivering less than 45% of their targets. Several London boroughs onlyescape sanctions of the HDT through the ability to use targets from the existing London Plan in areas without an up-to-date localplan. Local authorities without an up-to-date plan across the rest of the country are required to use MHCLG standard methodology.

There were 369,000 planning consents in the year to Q4 2018, 4% lower than their peak in Q4 2017, but still well above theGovernment’s ambition for 300,000 homes per annum by the mid-2020s. The number of new planning consents remained abovehousing need across all regions except London. This highlights the challenge of identifying enough land in London for housing.