Publication

Spotlight: GB Agricultural Land 2018

What does the future hold for Great Britain’s farmland market?

Foreword

Brexit-related developments continue to dominate market discussion. While Secretary of State Michael Gove provided some comfort to the farming community at the Oxford Farming Conference in January, lingering uncertainty is keeping supply constrained and average pricing marginally subdued. Despite the prevalence of downside risk, we note strong pockets of resilient demand from lifestyle/amenity purchasers as residential farms and trophy estates have performed well when priced at fair value.

While some farmland values across Britain continue to be hampered, we believe the trend initially spurred by weakness in commodity pricing during 2014 is slowing. Our most recent Farmland Value Survey revealed an average fall of around only 2% year on year across all land types and geographies. Disparity is evident, with some more commercial areas and lesser quality properties seeing greater falls than others. Yet, in certain circumstances, excellent sale results are and will continue to be achieved.

We are confident on the market’s longer-term fundamentals and expect dynamics to firm up as the outcome of Brexit further materialises. GB farmland remains an attractive investment proposition, buoyant against inflation with realisable upside from a return to capital uplift and further enhancement from diversification and/or development windfall.

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