Publication

City Office Market Watch – November 2017

No evidence of a slow-down with under-offers 77% up on the long-term average

Supply and demand snapshot

■ Take-up for October was 632,395 sq ft, bringing total take-up for 2017 to 5.4m sq ft, which is 29% up on this point last year. 81% of transactions to-date have been of a Grade A standard.

■ The 12-month rolling take-up at the end of October was 7.0m sq ft, which is 26% above the same point in 2016 and 40% up on the long-term average.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key October stats

Source: Savills Research

■ There was a total of 50 transactions in October with an average deal size of 12,648 sq ft. On average there have been 37 deals a month this year, up on the long-term average of 29 deals a month.

■ A notable transaction to complete in October saw WeWork acquire the whole of The Bard building in The Stage, EC2 development (137,404 sq ft). They took the space on a 25-year lease at an average overall rent of £69.15/sq ft. The serviced office provider also took the remaining 42,067 sq ft in The Hewett building of the same scheme on similar terms. The Cain Hoy mixed-use development is due to complete in Q2 2019 and is now fully pre-let.

■ Also in October, WeWork acquired 49,212 sq ft across levels one to five at The Cursitor Building, 35 Chancery Lane, WC2. They took the space in the Midtown building on a 20-year lease at an average overall rent of £63.50/sq ft. The serviced office provider has now acquired 340,512 sq ft in the City, and 887,495 sq ft across Central London in 2017.

■ In the year to the end of October, the Tech & Media sector accounted for the greatest proportion of take-up at 22%. This is followed by the Professional services sector at 14% and the Banking sector at 12%. Following WeWork's acquisitions last month, the Serviced Office Provider sector has now accounted for 11% of take-up this year, of which WeWork alone account for 57% of the sector's activity. The Insurance & Financial services sector has accounted for 10%.

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City take-up by business sector

Source: Savills Research – data accurate to end of October 2017

■ We should also note that four of the top six deals in October were to WeWork. In fact with Mindspace taking levels eight and nine at Broadgate West, EC2, five of the top six deals last month were to serviced office providers.

■ Total City supply stands at 7.5m sq ft at the end of October, equating to a vacancy rate of 6.0%, which is the same as this point last year and still down on the 10-year average by 60 bps.

■ Following 942,702 sq ft going under-offer last month, there is now 2.3m sq ft under-offer in the City, which is 40% up on the three year average and 77% up on the long-term average.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City total under-offer

Source: Savills Research – data accurate to end of October 2017

■ The top rent achieved in the City so far this year rose last month to £93.00/ sq ft when CoStar acquired 15,911 sq ft on level 26 of The Shard, SE1.

■ There is currently 8.7m sq ft of Central London and City requirements, of which 56% is either under-offer or active. This total is only down on the long-term average by 1% and down 2% on the 12-month average.


Analysis close up

Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Demand figures include central London requirements

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant October transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research