Developments
There is set to be an average of 2.1m sq ft of completions per year in the West End between 2017-2020, which is slightly ahead of the 1.8m sq ft historic average.
However, due to the constriction on supply in the West End, pre-letting has become increasingly prevalent as tenants have been forced to act early in order to secure suitable office space, particularly for larger requirements. Indeed, 34% (1.34m sq ft) of 2016's and 31% (0.74m sq ft) of H1 2017’s take-up was space pre-let before completion, while 29% of the 2017–20 pipeline has been pre-let. This trend is likely to continue, reducing the amount of speculative space being delivered to the West End market, preventing any potential over supply. Indeed, removing pre-let schemes there is set to be an average of 1.5m sq ft of speculative completions per year between 2017-20.
Rents
The West End has continued to see strong headline rental levels in 2017. There have been 27 transactions with rents above £100.00/sq ft in H1 2017 compared to 33 across 2016. These are led by a record rent of £190.00/sq ft achieved at 5 St James’s Square. Boosted by these transactions, the average prime rent at the end of Q2 2017 was £118.25/sq ft, 7% above £110.50/sq ft recorded in 2016. Similarly, the average Grade A rent has risen by 8% on last year, standing at £83.22/sq ft at the end of Q2 2017.
Whilst headline rents have held strong, the current uncertain economic climate has placed upward pressure on the level of incentives being offered to tenants. The average rent-free period on straight 10-year leases in 2017 is 20 months, compared with 16 months in 2016.
Clearly there is a limit to the amount of tenant incentives landlords can offer and it is likely that we may see downward pressure on headline rents in H2 2017 and 2018, particularly in the prime end of the market. In line with future take-up levels, the extent to which headline rents fall may be dictated by the outcome of Britain’s Brexit negotiations with the EU and the impact this has on the ability of businesses to operate in Britain and the EU. However, the West End’s broad tenant base, low vacancy rate and limited speculative development pipeline should prevent any drastic drops in rental levels.
West End investment
The West End has continued to witness high levels of investment in 2017, with turnover at the end of H1 standing at £3.90bn, just shy of the record £3.96bn recorded in H1 2015. Interestingly, whilst investment volumes in H1 2017 were the second highest ever recorded, this was spread across just 55 transactions which is the lowest number of H1 deals on record.
Turnover has remained buoyant, despite the low number of transactions. This is a result of investors targeting both scale and high quality assets, which in the main are 'well let' and in good physical condition. There has been a record six transactions over £200m up to the end of June, the same amount recorded in all of 2016. Indeed, deals of £200m or greater have totalled £1.64bn making up an unprecedented 42% of total volume compared to just 18% in 2016. This resulted in a record average deal size in H1 of £73m compared to £46m in 2016.