Publication

City Office Market Watch – September 2017

Significant impact on the future pipeline as Deutsche Bank pre-let the whole of 21 Moorfields

Supply and demand snapshot

■ Take-up for August was 908,460 sq ft, bringing total take-up for 2017 to 4,435,383 sq ft, which is 29% up on this point last year. 81% of transactions to-date have been of a Grade A standard.

■ The 12-month rolling take-up at the end of August was 6.8m sq ft, which is 21% above the same point in 2016 and 38% up on the long-term average.

Table 1

TABLE 1Key August stats

Source: Savills Research

Graph 1

GRAPH 1City take-up

Source: Savills Research – data accurate to end of July 2017

■ A notable transaction to complete in August saw Deutsche Bank pre-let the entirety of the future scheme 21 Moorfields, EC2, which is circa 570,000 sq ft. The pre-let is subject to an impending planning consent, and the estimated completion date is Q2 2020. It is encouraging for the London office market to see such a large occupier committing their long-term future to the capital.

■ Also in August, Oath (previously known as Yahoo) acquired 77,436 sq ft at Mid City Place, WC1 across levels four and five. They have taken the sublet space from AECOM on confidential terms, however the floors were being marketed at £48.50/sq ft.

■ In the year to the end of August, the Tech & Media sector accounted for the greatest proportion of take-up at 21%. This is followed by the Banking sector, largely due to Deutsche Bank, now accounting for 15%. The Professional services sector are next at 14%, and the Insurance & Financial services sector at 10%. There has been continued strong activity from Serviced Office Providers who have accounted for 7% of take-up to-date.

■ Total City supply stood at 7.3m sq ft at the end of August, equating to a vacancy rate of 5.8%, up on this point last year by 60 bps, however still down on the 10-year average by 80bps.

■ At the end of August, there was circa 1.7m sq ft of current and future supply under-offer, which is up on the long-term average by 29%.

Graph 2

GRAPH 2City supply

Source: Savills Research – data accurate to end of July 2017

■ The average Grade A rent for 2017 at the end of August was £61.56/sq ft, which is only 3% down on last year. With little over a quarter left to go, our end of year forecasts of 5% down appear conservative.

■ We have seen incentives rise on a straight 10-year lease from 19 months last year to 22 months so far this year.


Analysis close up

Table 2

TABLE 2Monthly take-up

Table 3

TABLE 3Year-to-date take-up

Table 4

TABLE 4Rents

Table 5

TABLE 5Supply

Table 6

TABLE 6Development pipeline

Table 7

TABLE 7Demand & under offers

Demand figures include central London requirements

Completions due in the next six months are included in the supply figures

*Average prime rents for preceding three months

** Average rent free on leases of 10 years with no breaks for preceding three months

N.B We have amended our historic stock figure, resulting in a slight change of our historic vacancy rates (Aug 2015)

Table 8

TABLE 8Significant August transactions

Table 9

TABLE 9Significant supply

Map 1

MAP 1Savills City Office Market Area (updated at the end of each quarter)

Source: Savills Research