It is the beginning of a new era for Manchester. It is all change for the council as its leader Sir Howard Bernstein steps down. The focus will now be on the new head, Joanne Roney, who is taking on the job described as the 'biggest and best in local government'.
Roney is starting her new role with a positive economic outlook. Manchester's economy is estimated to have grown by 2.9% during 2016, a strong performance given the result of the EU referendum. This is well above the UK average of 1.8%, according to figures from Oxford Economics.
With Manchester’s economy well balanced across all sectors and more resilient to Brexit, we see this as a compelling case for further northshoring, This will offer alternative and cheaper property costs away from the capital. Universities are also key in attracting jobs to Manchester and supplying skilled workers.
We expect this to have a positive effect on office based employment figures over the next couple of years.
Although there is no clear timetable for the UK’s exit from the EU, tenants will not be able to put off making decisions indefinitely. They may demand more flexibility when signing new leases, but occupiers will continue to seek space. Low supply and a very limited development pipeline is likely to keep the office markets buoyant.
Manchester is expected to see faster office based employment growth over the next five years than Greater London and all of the key UK regional cities. Office based employment is expected to grow by 6% over the next five years, significantly above the UK average of 3.5%.
This positive sentiment has been felt by employers and according to Deloitte’s CFO survey, 11% of CFOs expect to increase hiring over the next 12 months. This is a marked increase on the 1% who expected to increase hiring immediately after the EU referendum.
The strength of the economy is reflected in the occupational markets. Last year saw take-up reach an impressive 1.3m sq ft with almost 70% of these signing post-referendum. Anecdotally at least, the early indications are that 2017 has started in the same vein. We expect around 550,000 sq ft to sign in the first half of the year.
Key deals for 2016 include Swinton Insurance, who completed on the whole building (165,000 sq ft) at 101 Embankment, consolidating their two offices into one. This consolidation has enabled them to dramatically change their business model going forward.
The relocation of Freshfields was the other significant deal of 2016. They took 80,000 ft at No 1 New Bailey.
Grade A availability for 2017 is around 500,000 sq ft with circa 70,000 sq ft of this currently under offer to DWP. The city is once again starting to look under-supplied of office space. There is only 18-months worth of available stock based on the five-year average take-up.